Betsided

Alabama vs. UConn Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NCAA Tournament Final Four (How to Bet on Huskies)

By Reed Wallach

Mar 30, 2024; Boston, MA, USA; Connecticut Huskies center Donovan Clingan (32) reacts against the
Mar 30, 2024; Boston, MA, USA; Connecticut Huskies center Donovan Clingan (32) reacts against the / Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
facebooktwitterreddit

UConn is two wins away from college basketball royalty. 

The defending National Champions Huskies are a win away from becoming the first team to go back-to-back since 2006 and 2007 Florida, and in its way is double-digit underdog Alabama, whose offense paced a surprising run to the Final Four. 

Can UConn continue to destroy its opponent and win a fifth straight game by double digits and cover? Here’s our full betting preview for the National Semifinals. 

New DraftKings Sportsbook users! Sign up below and get $150 in bonus bets when you opt in through the link below and make a first wager of just $5!

Alabama vs. UConn Odds, Spread and Total

UConn vs. Alabama Betting Trends

  • Uconn is 26-12 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Alabama is 3-5-1 ATS as an underdog this season
  • Alabama has gone OVER in 27 of 36 games this season
  • Alabama has gone OVER in eight of nine games as an underdog this season

Alabama vs. UConn How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, April 6th
  • Game Time: 8:49 PM EST
  • Venue: State Farm Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): TBS
  • Alabama Record: 25-11
  • UConn Record: 35-3

Alabama vs. UConn Key Players to Watch

Alabama

Mark Sears: Sears drained seven three-point shots in the win against Clemson and the Crimson Tide will need the 43% three-point shooter in Sears to show up yet again on Saturday to pull the titanic upset. Alabama is based around its offense, and Sears does it all, averaging 21/4/4 this season. If the team wins, it’ll be behind a strong game from the lead guard. 

UConn

Donovan Clingan: Off arguably the best game of his career in which he shut down Illinois' entire offense while bending the Fighting Illini frontcourt to his will en route to a 22-point, 10-rebound and give block effort in just 22 minutes. Alabama’s interior has been prone to fouling and giving up plenty of shots at the rim, can Clingan be in for another big effort? 

Alabama vs. UConn Prediction and Pick

Alabama does have a path to victory, and it revolves around its torrid three-point shooting. The Crimson Tide is a 37% three-point shooting unit while hoisting them at a top 20 clip nationally. 

Overall, the Crimson Tide bolster an analytical sound shot profile behind coach Nate Oats, all threes and layups, but the team will have an issue against an elite UConn defense that does an elite job of running teams off the three-point line (48th in opponent three-point rate) and has Clingan around the rim to stymie shots there. 

Of course, outlier shooting games can happen, but the Crimson Tide can’t slow down UConn’s offense that is top 10 in effective field goal percentage, and 13th in offensive rebounding rate, per KenPom. 

Alabama’s defense, despite this run to the Final Four, still is outside the top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency and is incredibly poor in the frontcourt, bottom 100 nationally in causing turnovers, defensive rebounding percentage, and opponent free throw rate allowed. 

I don’t believe the Crimson Tide will have an answer for UConn at all. The Huskies' elite motion offense is going to unpack this defense who is prone to getting into foul trouble and will be whistled plenty during the array of off-ball screens the Huskies run. 

UConn can blow this open if Alabama isn’t on from three, but I believe the Huskies team total over is the path to take in this matchup given the Crimson Tide's quick pace and little recourse to slowing down the Huskies.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!

Home/March Madness