Amanda Nunes vs. Julianna Pena Prediction and Odds for UFC 269
By Reed Wallach
Amanda Nunes takes her 12 fight winning streak into her bantamweight title defense against Julianna Pena in the co-main event of UFC 269.
These two were supposed to square off in August, but the champ tested positive for COVID-19, so the fight was rescheduled to this Saturday.
Can Pena pull off the upset of the year? Will Nunes further cement herself as the WMMA GOAT?
Let's break it down.
Odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook
Amanda Nunes vs. Julianna Pena Odds
Moneyline:
- Nunes: -850
- Pena: +560
Total: 1.5 Rounds (Over -130/Under +100)
Amanda Nunes vs. Julianna Pena Prediction and Pick
It's not if Nunes will win, it's how and when.
Nunes is the champion for a reason and I don't see Pena standing much of a chance despite 'The Lioness'' recent inactivity due to COVID-19.
Of course, I can't lay -850 despite the likelihood that she wins so I'll look to angle for how I see this fight finishing.
I don't see Pena looking to engage in the stand up, she throws nearly half the amount of volume that Nunes does and is more of a defensive striker, absorbing less than two significant strikes per minute, per UFCStats.
I can see the challenger looking to grapple with Nunes, which won't go well either. While she averages more than two takedowns per 15 minutes, her takedown defense is a ghastly 23%. If she finds herself on the ground, I can see Nunes, a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, slipping a submission on 'The Venezuelan Vixen."
At +400 that translates to an implied probability of about 20% and I see a more likely outcome than that. In a spot that doesn't show much betting value on the moneyline I'm willing to take a stab on this method of victory prop.
PICK: Nunes by Submission +400