American Athletic Conference Men's Basketball Tournament Preview, Odds and Prediction
The American Athletic Conference is a living definition of the expression “That’s why they play the game," because at the start of the season everyone knew what teams were going to compete for the conference title, and everyone knew what teams were going to be competing just to stay out of last place.
What transpired over the last five months made the AAC one of the more exciting and possibly confusing conferences in the country.
We saw favorites learn what it means to be the hunted, we saw teams come from out of nowhere to compete for a regular season title and we saw teams fail to live up to their preseason expectations.
Without further ado, allow me to recap the season that was and provide insight into the teams that provide the best value in the AAC tournament.
Odds to Win the AAC Tournament
Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
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FAU Owls (+165)
The Owls were the conference preseason favorite and they are the tournament favorite, and it is hard to find a reason why they shouldn’t be. They have the most prolific offense in the AAC, averaging 82.7 points a night on 47.9% shooting from the field, and they returned all five starters from a team that went to the Final Four last season.
What’s the problem?
The Owls are the embodiment of the Shakespearian quote, “Uneasy lies the head that wears a crown,” as they have taken the best shot of every team in the AAC, resulting in all four of their conference losses coming on the road, non-conference losses to Bryant and Florida Gulf Coast and going from a top 10 team, to being nowhere near the top 25.
Don’t get me wrong, when the Owls are locked in they look every bit the part of a Final Four team -- they beat Arizona in a de-facto road game in Las Vegas -- but the losses to inferior opponents make me wonder if this parliament of Owls can handle having the target on their back.
Memphis Tigers (+440)
Will the real Memphis Tigers please stand up? In mid-January the Tigers were 15-2 and ranked No. 10 in the polls and looked every bit the part of a Final Four contender. That was until Memphis blew a 20-point lead at home to USF which started a series of six losses in nine games, including losses to Tulane and Rice.
Reports of infighting, head coach Penny Hardaway implying that the players hate one another, and a once promising season spiraling out of control to a sixth place finish. The Tigers have burned a lot of bettors this season, but if the AAC’s leading scorer David Jones can get Memphis back to their mid-January form in this tournament, these odds will provide a great return.
SMU Mustangs (+480)
Everything about the Mustangs on paper looks like a conference contender and an NCAA tournament team. They play great on both ends of the court, averaging 77 points a night and holding opponents to an average of 67 points per game, they’re ranked 55th in the NET rankings which makes them a Quad 1 team, yet they’re the definition of good but not good enough.
The Mustangs have eight losses by single-digits, and four of those losses were one-possession games. They appeared to turn a corner in mid-February winning six straight games, capped off with a 27-point thumping of Memphis, until they proceeded to lose three in a row which included an awful home loss to UTSA.
The inconsistency of the Mustangs makes them difficult to ride, but the value the odds makers are giving them makes me think this could be their moment to shine.
USF Bulls (+550)
The biggest surprise in the AAC this season was the USF Bulls, who under first year head coach Amir Abdur-Rahim went from being picked ninth in the preseason poll to winning the regular season title, the first in program history. The Bulls dominated the regular season, rattling off a 15-game winning streak that included wins over Memphis, FAU and SMU, clinching the regular season crown over a week ago.
Despite their dominance, the Bulls will likely have to win the conference tournament to get invited to the big dance. Their resume does contain the quality wins previously mentioned; but it also contains losses to Central Michigan, Maine and a brutal loss to Tulsa in the season finale. Leading scorer Chris Youngblood will be the key to the Bulls capping off the greatest season in their program’s history.
Charlotte 49ers (+1300)
The 49ers lost their two leading scorers and their head coach from a team that won the CBI tournament a year ago. The amount of turnover led to a bleak outlook for this season; picked to finish 13th in the preseason with no chance of competing for a conference title.
Well, no one gave the 49ers the memo.
After sleepwalking to a sub .500 record when the New Year began, a home win over FAU kick started an eight game winning streak that had the 49ers tied for first place, however a road loss to USF where the 49ers blew a 15-point lead ended any dreams of a regular season title, but a third place finish did more than defy expectations.
Lu’Cye Patterson is one of four players averaging double digits a night for a team that doesn’t score at a high pace, but they grind their opponents down to an average of 65.9 points per game (second in AAC). If you’re looking for a potential Cinderella to put some pocket change on, there is no better team than the 49ers from the Queen City.
The AAC tournament should be exciting, it is one of the more top-heavy leagues in the country but I still think there are some surprises in store for us fans and bettors.
As for which team I am backing, I am going to ride with the regular season champions, the USF Bulls, and I am doing so for two reasons. The first being the value, I think they are being completely discredited by the oddsmakers, and I think there is an opportunity to profit off of that.
The other reason being that I believe their season ending loss to Tulsa might have been the best thing to happen to them. It forces them to reset and not have the weight of a winning streak on their shoulders heading into a tournament they are going to need to win anyway in order to go to the NCAA tournament.
We will see how things play out, and let the madness begin.
Pick: USF (+550)
Odds update periodically and are subject to change.