The American Express Picks and Betting Preview

Congratulations to all who tailed my picks for last week's Sony Open. It couldn't have gone better, as the two golfers it came down to on Sunday made up two of my three picks in last week's article. In the end, Hideki Matsuyama cashed for us at +1600. Brian Giuffra also suggested you take Matsuyama at +225 ahead of the final round.

It was a perfect weekend of golf!

Let's try to keep that momentum going this week as the PGA Tour heads back to the continental United States for The American Express, set to take place across three different golf courses in Palm Springs, California.

Golfers will play at the TPC Stadium Course in two of the four rounds, one coming between Thursday-Saturday and the other occurring on Sunday for the final round. The other two courses that will be played on Thursday-Saturday are La Quinta Cointry Club and the Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course.

What makes The American Express unique is that the cut will take place at 54-holes, instead of the traditional 36-hole cut.

Odds to Win The American Express

Here are the top 10 golfers on the odds list at WynnBET to win The American Express.

• Jon Rahm +600
• Patrick Cantlay +900
• Scottie Scheffler +1800
• Sungjae Im +2000
• Tony Finau +2000
• Corey Conners +2200
• Abraham Ancer +2500
• Matthew Wolff +3000
• Patrick Reed +3000
• Talor Gooch +3300

How to Handicap The American Express

This is my least favorite event to handicap on the PGA Tour's schedule due to the difficulty of trying to figure out an event that is played on three different courses. Not only that, but the Stadium Course is the only one that records shot-link data, so we're blind going into the other two tracks.

Because of the fact that all three courses present unique challenges, and we don't have a lot of data for two of them, I'm going to lean on extremely general stats and recent form in my handicapping process. Don't overthink this event, because it's going to make you pull your hair out. Instead, bet a little bit less money and wager on golfers that have played well this season.

Key Stats for The American Express

• Strokes gained: tee-to-green
• Ball Striking
• Birdie or better percentage
• Scrambling percentage
• Strokes gained: Putting

Picks to Win The American Express

Jon Rahm +600 (1 unit)

I think it's time to retire my strategy of not betting on favorites in golf tournaments. Jon Rahm is at an extremely short price of 6/1, so this is as square of a bet as you can make, but in an event that boasts as much confusion from a betting standpoint, I'm going to ride with Mr. Consistent.

Rahm is the No. 1 golfer in the world, finished solo 2nd at the Tournament of Champions two weeks ago, won this event back in 2018, and is 2nd on the Tour this season in strokes gained: tee-to-green. There's a reason why he's set at such a short price. The only golfer in the field that can challenge his skill is Patrick Cantlay (+900), but I'll stick with the best golfer on the planet.

If he's on his game, he wins this week.

Matthew Wolff +3000 (0.5 unit)

Matthew Wolff had a rollercoaster of a 2021 season, but quietly got off to a strong start in the new campaign. He's made four stats so far, and he's finished in the top 20 in all four events, including a solo second at the Shriners Children's Open and a T5 at the World Wide Technology Champions at Mayakoba.

I'm going to bank on him continuing that success, and if he's on with his driver, he has a great chance to be in contention on Sunday.

He ranks 11th in strokes gained: tee-to-green this season, fifth in strokes gained: putting, and third in total strokes gained.

Luke List +7000 (0.5 unit)

Can you guess who ranks first on the PGA Tour in strokes gained tee-to-green this season? Well, obviously it's Luke List or else I wouldn't be bringing this up. He's already competed in seven events this season, with four top 20 finishes including a T7 and T10.

His biggest downfall is his putting, where he ranks 204th, but as I said last week when I bet on Matsuyama, I'd rather bet on a good ball striker and hope he gets hot with his putting, than a bad ball striker that is consistently good on the greens. List checks a lot of boxes for this week's event, and he becomes even more tempting at +7000.