American League Cy Young Award odds and best bet at All-Star break (Favorites could fade)
By Josh Yourish
The first half of the season has come to an end and there is a loaded race for the American League Cy Young. Heading into the all-star break, Framber Valdez of the Houston Astros is the favorite and Gerrit Cole is right behind him.
With Justin Verlander over in the NL the path is open for one of his former teammates to take the crown, but there are plenty of dark horse contenders that might be good bets to make with half of the year to go.
Here are the odds for the AL Cy Young at the All-Star break and I’ll give you the American League pitchers that I expect to have a great second half of the year.
AL Cy Young Award odds
AL Cy Young Award best bet
Valdez has had a great start to the year, but he might be this season’s Shane McClanahan. Last year, McClanahan was on a tear in the break, but the wheels came off a little bit in the second half and opened the door for Verlander to get another Cy Young Award.
Valdez has a 2.51 ERA, but a 2.82 FIP and a 3.86 expected ERA. He is actually below league average in expected batting average. I don’t see Valdez holding on to win the award.
The same goes for Cole who has a 3.43 FIP with his 2.85 ERA and an xERA of 3.84. The indicators say that there will be some slight negative regression for Cole. However, there are a few pitchers who’s indicators say they’re primed for a stellar second half.
Kevin Gausman is right with Cole and Valdez at the top of the odds and he leads the AL in strikeouts with 153. That’s 15 more than Pablo Lopez who is second. Gausman has a 3.03 ERA, but a 2.45 FIP and a 3.52 xERA. His 94th percentile strikeout rate and 82nd percentile walk rate will make him reliable the rest of the way.
Gausman is my best bet, but there are two longshots that I love to have great second halves. Joe Ryan finished the first half with a whimper allowing five runs to Baltimore over 4.1 innings, but he has a 2.88 xERA which is about a run lower than his 3.70 ERA.
Ryan is 82nd percentile in strikeouts rate, 96th percentile in walk rate, and has an 81st percentile expected batting average.
The other longshot is Zach Eflin who has a 3.50 ERA in 17 starts with 105 strikeouts to 15 walks in 102.1 innings. He has a 3.12 FIP and 2.97 xERA for Tampa Bay. I expect some positive regression for him and even with McClanahan on the same staff I think Eflin could be the best Cy Young Award candidate on his team. Ryan is +6600 and Eflin is +15000 in the latest odds.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change