American League Pennant Odds: Are Astros or White Sox the Best Bet?

We're finally entering the home stretch of the 2021 MLB season, and the race for consequential playoff seeding in the American League could go all the way to Game 162.

With 50 games set to go, the Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox remain the two top favorites to represent the American League in the World Series over at WynnBET Sportsbook. The Astros have +200 odds to win the pennant, +600 for the World Series, and the White Sox come in at +300 odds to win the AL, +700 to win a championship.

Both squads are tied at 66-46 on the season; 20 games above the .500 mark, and look to be dangerous outs come postseason time. While the White Sox made the more noticeable trade deadline acquisition; acquiring the league's best closer in Craig Kimbrel from their in-town rival Cubs, both teams were active in shoring up their team.

So which of these two teams make for the better bet to walk away with a trip to the World Series?

Why the Astros will win the AL Pennant

Houston's offense has been flat out dominant all season long. Via Fangraphs, they lead all of baseball in two key metrics: offensive runs above average (Off), and offensive wins above replacement (WAR). They own the best run differential in the American League at +149, and have scored the most runs in the league by 43 over the second best team: the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Astros, despite their strong record, should actually be better than they've been. MLB.com's expected win/loss record projects the Astros should be four games better than their current record at 70-42, going from 20 games over .500 to 28.

They've also played up to the level of competition they've faced this season, going 43-28 against teams with winning records.

Why the White Sox will win the AL Pennant

The White Sox have kept their lineup together despite injuries throughout the season, and while it's a strength of their team, it's their pitching that's been amongst the best in baseball.

Chicago has allowed the least amount of runs in the AL this year, and has the top pitching WAR in the league over at Fangraphs. Four of the White Sox starters own an ERA less than 4.00, including Cy Young candidates Carlos Rodon (2.38) and Lance Lynn (2.04).

Then there's their bullpen. Closer Liam Hendricks has a 2.40 ERA in 48.2 innings, averaging just under 15 strikeouts per nine innings. His new teammate, Craig Kimbrel, is averaging over 15 K's per nine this season. Chicago also has five guys in their bullpen that sit 97 mph or higher with their fastball velocity in Hendricks, Kimbrel, Michael Kopech, Garrett Crochet and Jose Ruiz.

Who's the best bet between the Astros and White Sox?

Simply because of the edge that pitching holds in the postseason, along with depth and high leverage bullpen arms, I'll side with the White Sox at the slightly higher odds over the Astros. The rotation is one of the best, if not the best in baseball, and there's never any concern if someone pitches into trouble with the quality depth their bullpen possesses.

PREDICTION: White Sox to win American League (+300)

Who do you think comes home with the AL Pennant?

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