Angels vs. Mariners Prediction and Odds for Sunday, August 7 (Angels With Value as Road Underdogs)

Don't look now, but the Los Angeles Angels won five of their last six as road underdogs and gun for a rare series win today against the Seattle Mariners.

Tucker Davidson makes his fourth start of the season after spending most of the year in the minors. He struggles with command and compiled a 5.04 July ERA down in Triple-A though, so his appearance today is more due to injury necessitating it instead of a positive reflection on Davidson's performance.

Seattle turns to Margo Gonzales, who has a 5.04 ERA in his last four starts. Gonzales' underlying metrics are terrible and the Mariners are just 2-6 in his last eight home outings, so neither lineup should be afraid of the opposing starter today.

Which struggling pitcher has the edge? Can Gonzales get back on track or will Davidson show he belongs at this level?

Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook as we analyze this Angels vs Mariners matchup:

Angels vs Mariners Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Angels +1.5 (-155)
• Mariners -1.5 (+127)

Moneyline:

• Angels: +139
• Mariners: -149

Total:

• 8.0 (Over -110/Under -110)

Angels vs Mariners Prediction and Pick

It's hard to find much reason to back Marco Gonzales as a favorite, even against the lowly Angels. He's got the worst FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of all MLB qualified pitchers by a long shot at 5.30. Patrick Corbin has the second-highest FIP at 4.97, so it's not hyperbole to say Gonzales is MLB's worst starter.

Gonzales allowed a whopping six home runs over his last three starts, and his MLB Statcast Pitching Profile is a nightmare:

Even though Tucker Davison is far from impressive himself, the Mariners' lineup ranks just 26th in OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last three weeks. Thus, I'm not sure Seattle's offense can keep up with what I expect Los Angeles' output to be.

Shohei Ohtani has to be salivating at the opportunity to face Gonzales, and I'd take a long look at home run props for Angels.

With Los Angeles winning five of six as road underdogs, the club is finally showing some life. At +139, I'll take a shot on the Angels continuing their strong run against a pitcher I look to fade at every chance I get.

Pick: Angels (+139)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.