Are Buccaneers Locks to Win NFC South? Don't Discount Saints to Possibly Surprise in NFC South

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the largest favorite to win their division of any team in the NFL at -300 at WynnBET Sportsbook, even ahead of the Buffalo Bills (-230), but should they be?  

The answer is absolutely not.  There is no team in the AFC East that is nearly as big of a threat to the Bills, as the New Orleans Saints are to the Bucs in the NFC South.  

The Saints lost longtime head coach Sean Payton to retirement, but Dennis Allen is the mastermind behind the Saints defense that shut out Tom Brady in Week 15 a year ago.  The Saints are also 4-0 against Tom Brady’s Buccaneers in the regular season, with their only loss to Brady’s Bucs coming in the divisional round of the 2020 playoffs 

Brady has developed a keen sense for when he needs to get out of a situation.  Similar to LeBron, he can tell when a team has gotten stale and his chance to win has come to an end.  That’s why Tom left New England and why he tried to leave Tampa Bay this offseason.  Brady never wanted to retire.  He reportedly wanted to force his way out of Tampa to get to San Francisco or Miami, where the Dolphins had an ownership stake lined up for him.  

Tom Brady is telling us that the Bucs are worse.  So, let’s listen to him.  Antonio Brown is gone, Chris Godwin is coming off of an injury, Gronk does not appear to be returning, and now “Playoff Lenny” seems to have followed the Eddie Lacy offseason plan.  

Let’s not get it twisted. Brady is the reason Bruce Arians is no longer the head coach, answering the question of who runs the show in Tampa.  The transition to Todd Bowles should be seamless, especially with Byron Leftwich calling the plays.  There was turnover on the offensive line, but Alex Cappa coming in and Shaq Mason headed out is not exactly a downgrade.  Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are still one of the best wide receiver tandems in the league.  The offense will be fine, as Brady will find a way.  

The defense might be where problems start to arise.  They are aging and have lost some talent, but I expect the secondary will improve.  We need to remember that Richard Sherman had to play for this team a season ago.  They had some many injuries on the back end and still went 13-4 while allowing the second fewest yards-per-pass attempt in the NFL.  Regression may be coming, but I think that Todd Bowles’ defense will be good.  

The Saints were ultra aggressive in the first round of the draft, trading up to get much needed receiver help at No. 11 for Ohio State wideout Chris Olave, and taking Trevor Penning 19th overall to solidify the offensive line.  

The Saints went 5-2 with Jameis Winston at quarterback and went on to finish 9-8 after he got hurt.  This team still finished with a winning record and had Trevor Siemian play four games at quarterback.  Even Ian Book got a start!

Winston will be back healthy and we’ll get our most extended look at him post-LASIK surgery. While there's no possible way you can convince me to pick a team with Winston at quarterback over a team with Tom Brady, I'm not ready to completely guarantee the Bucs win the division.

Maybe they're not quite the lock that oddsmakers expect them to be, but I sure don’t have it in me to pick New Orleans instead. 

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