Are Texans Being Overlooked as Massive Underdogs vs. Colts?

NFL matchup consensus numbers for the Week 6 game between the Texans and Colts have wagers about split down the middle. The betting public is favoring the Texans slightly with 55% of bets on the Texans ATS on the roads in Indy this weekend. 

My question here is, why are so many people passing up a prime chance to take this team as a +10.0 underdog this weekend? 45% of you to be exact. I think that the oddsmakers are really being too harsh on this team for their abysmal 1-4 record against a team that has the exact same 1-4 record. What makes this game even more interesting in terms of combined failures, the Texans are 0-2 on the road and the Colts are 0-2 at home. So, somebody is getting their first win of the year somewhere. 

This still doesn’t answer the question as to why the Texans are double-digit underdogs against an equally bad team. Let’s take a closer look at this game between division rivals and see if we can extract some betting value from these road dogs. 

First off, despite their awful overall record, the Texans have covered 4 of their last 6 games on the road and 4 of their last 6 overall. 

Sure, on paper the Colts have a better team putting up better numbers. But they are not that much better than the Texans, and in some cases not better at all. It is no secret that the Texans rank in the bottom third of most important statistical categories, but what I feel is being overlooked is the Colts are right next to them. So, maybe on paper, these teams are a better match-up than many think. And certainly, a better matchup than a double-digit spread as far as I am concerned. 

Each team ranks towards the bottom in points scored per game, yards per play, red zone scoring, and yards per penalty on the offensive side of things. Defensively, things don’t get much better with each ranking 22nd or worse in opponents’ points per game, opponent pass completion percentage, and sack percentage. In fact, the Colts have a much worse defense in terms of certain very important metrics like yards per play, points per play, and allow teams to convert 75% of 4th down attempts and 68% of third down attempts. The Colts passing defense is also pretty awful, ranking 30th in pass completion percentage and 29th in opponents passing yards. 

The point of all this is not to convince you that the Texans are good by any stretch of the imagination. Because, spoiler alert, they suck. But, do they suck 10 points more than the Colts? To this, I say no. They are both awful teams at the bottom of their division that are desperate for a win before the season slips completely away. So I say take the Texans +10 this weekend or even on the moneyline if you are feeling feisty.