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Arizona vs. Oregon Prediction and Odds and Key Players for Saturday, Jan. 27

By Reed Wallach

Arizona center Oumar Ballo argues with an official against Alabama during the Jerry Colangelo Hall
Arizona center Oumar Ballo argues with an official against Alabama during the Jerry Colangelo Hall / Patrick Breen/The Republic / USA TODAY
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Arizona's road woes continued on Thursday, on the wrong end of a buzzer beater to the hands of PAC-12 bottom dweller Oregon State.

It won't get easier for Tommy Lloyd's bunch, traveling to Eugene to take on the rising Oregon Ducks on Saturday in PAC-12 action. Can the Wildcats clean up its act on the road and cover as small favorites, or will the Ducks continue to jockey for position atop the PAC-12 standings?

Here's our full betting preview for this PAC-12 showdown:

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Arizona vs. Oregon Odds, Spread and Total

Oregon vs. Arizona Betting Trends

  • Oregon is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog this season
  • Arizona is 12-7 ATS this season
  • Oregon has gone OVER in 11 of 19 games

Arizona vs. Oregon How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, January 27th
  • Game Time: 5:30 PM EST
  • Venue: Matthew Knight Arena
  • How to Watch (TV): FOX
  • Arizona Record: 14-5
  • Oregon Record: 14-5

Arizona vs. Oregon Key Players to Watch

Arizona

Oumar Ballo: Ballo is starting for a second straight season, but hasn't been as efficient as the true big man on the floor. He is averaging over 12 points and nine rebounds, but his shooting has dropped to 58% from the field after a dominant 64% last season. Will he show up against N'Faly Dante on the road after playing only 21 minutes against Oregon State?

Oregon

N'Faly Dante: Dante has battled injuries this season, but his imapct has been immense. The Ducks defense is more than 12 points better on defense when Dante is on the floor and providing a huge boost in terms of rebounding. The man in the middle has made life easier for everybody else on the Ducks roster, scoring a combined 39 points and grabbing 16 rebounds with five blocks over the last two games on a full minutes load.

Arizona vs. Oregon Prediction and Pick

In what would be a slam spot in most years, the college basketball betting market is sharpening up, not giving many an opportunity to get an inflated number on a rising home underdog like Oregon. Maybe the tax you are paying to bet on Oregon doesn't matter, but I'll look at it from the other end and say we are getting a discount on Arizona.

The Ducks recently got back N'Faly Dante and look to be a true contender in the PAC-12 this season and beyond. The team hosts Arizona, who has oodles of talent but isn't without warts, going 0-3 in true PAC-12 road games so far this season.

The Wildcats are a bonafie top five team on paper, but the team goes through dry spells consistently, especially from the perimeter, and are getting shaky play from guard Kylan Boswell of late (three points in 50 minutes over his last two games).

However, digging under the hood, this number is baking in the "spot" for the home underdog.

KenPom makes this game Arizona -5, Bart Torvik a smidge shorter. Haslam is closer to -6, is there a chance that the cart is before the horse on this Oregon team that has already ran really good in PAC-12 play, holding opponents to a conference low 34% from beyond the arc?

Arizona can match Dante inside, the team is the best interior offense in the conference and the best at generating second chances. This should be a war between him and Arizona big man Oumar Ballo, but I'm going to bank on the wings of the Wildcats to find its level after the Thursday night loss.

The Ducks are not only the best PAC-12 perimeter defense, but also the second best three-point shooting team in league play, shooting nearly 42% from beyond the arc. While Arizona has been prone to lapses in defensive coverage, ShotQuality deems the team is 305th in open three rate allowed, SQ also believes that the Ducks are due a 3% drop in three-point percentage.

Further, we saw a devastating transition offense give Oregon fits last week in Colorado, and Arizona may be able to run off of misses against the Ducks to generate easy buckets. That's even more apparent with Arizona's PAC-12 best defensive rebounding rate.

I'll take the slight discount in Arizona off of a loss as the market continues to shift too far on some of the best "spots" on the board.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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