Arizona vs. San Diego State Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 1 (Fade the Trends)
By Josh Yourish
San Diego State put together a fantastic 12-win season in 2021 and now looks to keep the program rolling under Brady Hoke. Braxton Burmeister has arrived from Virginia Tech and now they have a quarterback who could really open the offense up.
Arizona struggled in the first year of another rebuild, this time under Jedd Fisch. The Wildcats have a chance to tie their win total from last season right here in Week 1. Last year, this game was played in Arizona and the Aztecs dominated Arizona winning it 38-14 on the road. Yet, this year, the spread is less than a touchdown. Did Fisch really revive the Wildcats that quickly?
Arizona vs. San Diego State Odds, Spread and Total
San Diego State vs. Arizona Betting Trends
- SDSU went 7-6-1 ATS in 2021
- Arizona went 6-6 ATS in 2021
- Arizona went 2-3 ATS as a home underdog in 2021
- SDSU went 2-3 ATS as a home favorite in 2021
Arizona vs. San Diego State Prediction and Pick
The trends do not support my feelings about this game. San Diego State did not fare well as a road favorite against the spread in 2021. They did not cover in their blowout of Arizona a year ago, but that was naturally going to be a very big spread on the road and Brady Hoke’s team is predicated on defense and the running game. That is not the recipe to cover a huge spread. However, it is a great recipe to beat a team that went 1-11 last season by a touchdown at home.
San Diego State lost the Mountain West Championship last season and certainly want to avenge that loss this year. Losing Cameron Thomas on defense will hurt their pass rush some, but the Tavai brothers should be able to apply enough pressure that their defense will hold up to their high standard. Last season, it finished 12th in the nation.
The offense should be similar. They will run the ball hard with Burmeister at QB, so they need their reworked offensive line to gel quickly. It will be a lot better than Arizona’s offensive line that was a disaster a year ago and has had even more turnover with potentially less talent.
I love San Diego State at this number, I think Burmeister will be dynamic and add a vertical element to their offense. San Diego State should be over a touchdown favorite against Arizona until the Wildcats prove they aren’t the same 1-11 team from 2021.
Pick: San Diego State -6
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