Arkansas State vs. James Madison Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Sun Belt Championship Final

College basketball betting preview, prediction and best bets for Sun Belt Tournament Championship game between James Madison and Arkansas State on Monday, March 11.
Jan 6, 2024; Hattiesburg, Mississippi, USA; James Madison Dukes players Noah Freidel (1), Xavier
Jan 6, 2024; Hattiesburg, Mississippi, USA; James Madison Dukes players Noah Freidel (1), Xavier / Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
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James Madison’s stellar season reaches its culmination on Monday night as the team looks to punch its tickets to the NCAA Tournament with a Sun Belt conference tournament title. 

The Dukes will face No. 4 seed Arkansas State, who knocked off top seed Appalachian State on Sunday night on a buzzer beater, setting up a rematch from James Madison four-point road win last month. 

JMU’s a 30-win team, one of the highest rated mid-major groups in the country, but Arkansas State has proven to be a contender with its perimeter-oriented offense. Can the Red Wolves shoot its way into the NCAA Tournament? 

Here’s our full betting preview for the Sun Belt title game. 

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Arkansas State vs. James Madison Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

  • Arkansas State: +5
  • James Madison: -5

Moneyline

  • Arkansas State: +210
  • James Madison: -250

Total: 150.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

James Madison vs. Arkansas State Betting Trends

  • Arkansas State is 20-11-2 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • James Madison is 18-14 ATS this season
  • Arkansas State is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 games
  • Arkansas State has gone UNDER in eight of the last 10 games 

Arkansas State vs. James Madison How to Watch

  • Date: Monday, Match 11
  • Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Pensacola Bay Center
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN
  • Arkansas State Record: 18-15
  • James Madison Record: 30-3

Arkansas State vs. James Madison Key Players to Watch

Arkansas State

Freddy Hicks: Hicks hit a turnaround jumper to win it at the horn against No. 1 seed Appalachian State, continuing his fine play in the Sun Belt Tournament. He poured in 19 points and seven rebounds on Sunday after scoring 23 points against Louisiana on Saturday in the quarterfinals. Can he shut down JMU’s elite two-way play and help Arkansas State go to the ‘Big Dance?’

James Madison

Noah Freidel: The senior guard has taken his game to another level in Sun Belt play, shooting over 39% from beyond the arc and ranking third in true shooting percentage in the conference. He made four of his six 3s against Arkansas State in the first meeting, can he put together similar numbers on Monday night?

Arkansas State vs. James Madison Prediction and Pick

This game figures to be a defensive struggle. 

James Madison’s defense has been great all season on a national scale, elite at funneling teams inside where the team does a fantastic job of forcing contested mid range two’s. Arkansas State is an elite three-point offense, top 100 in the country, but with JMU’s ability to limit damage from distance, I believe the Red Wolves need to adjust its offensive game plan. In the first meeting, Arkansas State shot 30% from beyond the arc. 

On the other end, Arkansas State’s defense does a fantastic job on the perimeter as well, allowing the lowest three-point rate in the league this season, relying on a compact defense to stymie driving lanes. 

Despite ranking as the 12th best defense in conference play this season, the unit has been trending up at the right time, helping spark a 9-2 record since Feb. 1. The defense’s ability to force defense into contested two’s is a sound strategy that is paying off. 

The lone meeting went well under the total of 160.5 with James Madison’s 77-73 victory. I’ll go under yet again with the stakes even higher. 

PICK: UNDER 150.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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