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Arkansas vs. Alabama Prediction and Odds (Razorbacks Undervalued Again)

By Reed Wallach

Feb 8, 2022; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks forward Jaylin Williams (10)
Feb 8, 2022; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks forward Jaylin Williams (10) / Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
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Arkansas is off of their best win of the season, knocking off No. 1 Auburn at home to win their ninth straight game.

They now will look to avoided the dreaded letdown spot against a volatile Alabama team that is going to be hungry to grab another home victory over a top team. The Crimson Tide already has wins over Gonzaga, Houston and Baylor this season, will they add another?

Here are the projected odds:

Arkansas vs. Alabama Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Arkansas: +5 (-110)
  • Alabama: -5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Arkansas: N/A
  • Alabama: N/A

Total: 157

Arkansas vs. Alabama Prediction and Pick

I'm prepared to be burned, but I show a number edge on Arkansas and I don't think very highly of the Crimson Tide, who struggle on the glass against a large interior of the Razorbacks.

Alabama is vulnerable on the defensive glass, bottom 100 in defensive rebounding rate, and are also 12th in forcing turnovers in conference play. I believe that this number is baking in the potential letdown from Arkansas as well as the fact that the Crimson Tide have knocked off better foes at home.

Again, this is too many points to give the Razorbacks. I make this game closer to -3.5. The Crimson Tide are eventually due for positive shooting regression, but so is Arkansas. Each team is shooting below 32% in SEC play (Alabama worse at 29%), but I trust the Razorbacks defense that has JD Notae on the perimeter and Jaylin Williams inside to shut down the Tide's offense.

Alabama jacks three's (second highest three-point rate in the SEC) and if they are cold again they will struggle against a stout Hogs interior that is holding opponents to the second lowest two point percentage in league play.

We saw the team fall apart in the second half against Kentucky, scoring just 28 points in the last 20 minutes. Arkansas is a strong defensive team as well, ranked 25th in KenPom's defensive efficiency metric and has the best mark in SEC play.

I know the spot screams Bama, but I like Arkansas to stay close and potentially win again.

PICK: Arkansas +5

All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 57-46-3 for +8.7 units.

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