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Arkansas vs. Duke Prediction and Odds for NCAA Tournament Elite Eight

By Reed Wallach

Mar 24, 2022; San Francisco, CA, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks guard Au'Diese Toney (5) and guard JD
Mar 24, 2022; San Francisco, CA, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks guard Au'Diese Toney (5) and guard JD / Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
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Arkansas and Duke were each able to pull off betting upsets in Thursday Sweet 16 action, and now face off on Saturday night with a spot in the Elite Eight on the line.

Head coach Mike Krzyzewski's career continued with a come from behind win over Texas Tech and now the Duke Blue Devils will try to do it once more by beating Arkansas, who knocked off Gonzaga in one of the biggest upsets of the NCAA Tournament.

Who has the edge in this one? Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Arkansas vs. Duke Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Arkansas: +4 (-110)
  • Duke: -4 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Arkansas: +155
  • Duke: -185

Total: 147 (Over -110/Under -110)

Arkansas vs. Duke Prediction and Pick

This is an excellent matchup as Arkansas has won 18 of their last 21 games, but Duke has a ton of momentum after closing their last two games with some of the most clutch shot making in recent history and of course the narrative around Coach K's final NCAA Tournament.

The Blue Devils rallied to win and cover vs. Michigan State and then didn't miss a field goal in the last near-9 minutes against Texas Tech to hold them off in the Sweet 16. Now, they get an Arkansas team that struggles to shoot the three but stood tall to the vaunted Gonzaga frontcourt in a six point win over the No. 1 overall seed.

While the Hogs struggle to generate efficient offense, the team is outside the top 300 in 3-point percentage and star guard JD Notae shot 9-of-24 from the field in the Sweet 16, I still believe this team has the answers for a poor Duke defense.

The Blue Devils were scrambling until the second half when the team had to throw a 2-3 zone defense out that left Texas Tech searching for answers. I'm going to trust Notae to find answers against a Duke defense that is still outside the top 300 in forcing turnovers and a Razorbacks team that is top third in the country at generating second chances. Texas Tech lacked the ball handlers to get inside and create quality looks, but Arkansas has Notae and big man Jaylin Williams to plug in the middle.

Maybe it's a futile effort, but I'll fade Coach K one last time. Arkansas' offense isn't as aesthetically pleasing as Duke's top 3 offense in adjusted efficiency according to KenPom, but I believe they can scrap together enough stops and make another barn burner.

LEAN: Arkansas +4, UNDER 147

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