Arkansas vs. Gonzaga Prediction and Odds for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

Gonzaga Bulldogs guard Andrew Nembhard.
Gonzaga Bulldogs guard Andrew Nembhard. / Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Gonzaga avoided a huge upset loss in the second round of the NCAA Tournament to Memphis, pulling away in the final minutes to winning, 82-78. Now, they advance to the Sweet 16 to face SEC stalwart Arkansas, who escaped a rock fight against New Mexico State in the Round of 32, 53-48.

Now, Gonzaga and Arkansas face with a berth in the West regional final on Saturday on the line. Can the Razorbacks upset the Zags, who are the betting favorite to win the National Championship at WynnBET Sportsbook? Or will Mark Few's team carry on as they search for their first title.

Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook as well as a statistical breakdown and best bet:

Arkansas vs. Gonzaga Odds, Spread and Total


  • Arkansas: +8.5 (-110)
  • Gonzaga: -8.5 (-110)


  • Arkansas: +290
  • Gonzaga: -370

Total: 155 (Over -110/Under -110)

Arkansas vs. Gonzaga Analysis


  • Overall Record: 25-8
  • ATS Record: 20-13
  • Over/Under Record: 20-13
  • SoS: 34th
  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 111.0
  • Defensive Efficiency: 92.0
  • eFG%: 49.2%
  • FT%: 75.3%
  • 3PT%: 30.7%
  • Last Year’s Tournament Result: Elite 8
  • Odds to win National Championship: +3000


  • Overall Record: 23-2
  • ATS Record:13-10-2
  • Over/Under Record: 10-15 
  • SoS: 14th
  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 122.9
  • Defensive Efficiency: 89.4
  • eFG%: 59.8%
  • FT%: 72%
  • 3PT%: 37.5%
  • Last Year’s Tournament Result: National Runner-Up
  • Odds to win National Championship: +250

Arkansas vs. Gonzaga Prediction and Pick

My initial lean is to Arkansas, who can match the Gonzaga up-tempo attack with both teams placing gin the top 30 in adjusted tempo per KenPom, but I'm nervous about the Razorbacks shooting woes.

The team is outside the top 300 in 3-point percentage this season and will need to find ways to generate points outside the paint against Gonzaga's vaunted interior defense that is third in the country defending the rim, per Haslemetrics.

The Razorbacks have beaten elite competition over the last two months, including Kentucky and Auburn, but Gonzaga may have too much fire power for them. With that being said, I'm going to lean towards the under for now. The Hogs are top 60 in the country in generating turnovers and have the on ball chops to match with Andrew Nembhard on the perimeter.

The real question is if the Razorbacks can hang with Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren down low. I'm going to side with a slow start in this one given the fact that Arkansas isn't as explosive on offense but has the defense to hang early. The Zags will flirt with a big point total but I think we see a defensive struggle early.


You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!

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