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Arkansas vs. LSU Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 4

Two teams trending in opposite directions meet in Baton Rogue, how should we bet this one?

By Reed Wallach

Tigers Quarterback Jayden Daniels 5 throws a pass as the LSU Tigers take on Grambling State at Tiger
Tigers Quarterback Jayden Daniels 5 throws a pass as the LSU Tigers take on Grambling State at Tiger / SCOTT CLAUSE/USA TODAY Network / USA
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LSU smoked Mississippi State in its SEC opener, 41-14, and will look to make it two straight wins against SEC foes by hosting Arkansas.

The Razorbacks lost a heartbreaker to BYU at home and now face a tough stretch of SEC teams, starting with LSU, who is back on track after losing to Florida State in Week 1. The Tigers offense was on fire against Mississippi State as quarterback Jayden Daniels completed 30-of-34 passes for 361 yards with two touchdowns. Can the Bayou Bengals make it two straight SEC wins?

Here's my take on this SEC matchup, but for more college football analysis check out my deep dive on Alabama ahead of its SEC opener against Ole Miss.

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Arkansas vs. LSU Odds, Spread and Total

LSU vs. Arkansas Betting Trends

  • Arkansas is 1-2 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • LSU is 2-1 ATS this season
  • LSU has gone OVER in all three games

Arkansas vs. LSU How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, Sept. 23
  • Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Tiger Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN
  • Arkansas Record: 2-1
  • LSU Record: 2-1

Arkansas vs. LSU Key Players to Watch

Arkansas

KJ Jefferson: Jefferson has played well despite some coordinator changes and injuries to the likes of running back Rocket Sanders. Jefferson has completed 71% of his passes for 637 yards with six touchdowns and an interception. How will he do against a suspect LSU secondary (107th EPA/Pass)?

LSU

Jayden Daniels: As mentioned above, Daniels cooked against Mississippi State, completing over 88% for 341 yards, showcasing a downfield passing attack. Can Daniels keep it going as SEC play continues?

Arkansas vs. LSU Prediction and Pick

The Razorbacks offense has taken an overall stepback this season, due in part to injuries, but also a scheme change that has the Hogs playing outside the top 100 in terms of plays per minute. While Jefferson has continued to grow as a passer, I'm not sure I trust him to take advantage of this LSU secondary like Jordan Travis of Florida State did.

The Hogs have played a relatively light schedule thus far, and struggled on a down-to-down basis against BYU, posting a 37% success rate (30th percnetile when compared to all games in 2022) in the loss with a 4% explosive play rate (ninth percentile).

Meanwhile, Arkansas defense held up nicely despite the high point total in Week 3, 38-31 against BYU, shutting down BYU to a 30% success (ninth percentile) and about five yards per play. While LSU seems to be humming on offense, I still wonder if the team is that special in the passing game to rely on to get over an above average total.

Arkansas' defense has been sturdy this season, and I'm skeptical that the offense can get going against LSU's stout front seven. While the Tigers play fast, top 10 in plays per minute, I think this game shapes up for an under play.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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