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Arkansas vs. No. 23 Mississippi State Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 6

By Josh Yourish

Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback KJ Jefferson (1)
Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback KJ Jefferson (1) / Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
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Things have not gone well for Arkansas in the past two weeks. The Razorbacks were No. 10 in the country at that point and then a loss to Texas A&M and Alabama has them outside the Top 25. Ironically, Mississippi State jumped into the Top 25 with a win over Texas A&M last week as Mike Leach’s air raid system is working out great for quarterback, Will Rogers. Can Arkansas and Sam Pittman turn it around in Starkville this week?

Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread and Total

Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Betting Trends

  • Arkansas is 2-3 ATS
  • Mississippi State is 3-1-1 ATS
  • Arkansas games are 4-1 to the over
  • Mississippi State games are 3-2 to the over

Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Pick

Arkansas’s defense did not get it done against Alabama last week and gave up 49 points to the Crimson Tide with their backup quarterback, Jalen Milroe playing much of the game. However, they got gashed on the ground, not through the air. Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 206 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries. Arkansas is 112 in the country in total defense just behind Ball State. That is not going to fly in the SEC. 

Mike Leach teams are known for their offense, but even Mississippi State has a legitimate SEC defense ranked 37th in total defense. Will Rogers threw for 329 yards and three touchdowns against a Texas A&M defense that is loaded with five-stars who knows what he will do against this awful Arkansas defense. 

Sure, the defense is bad, but what has Arkansas really done to deserve being out of the top 25? They lost to Texas A&M 23-21 at a neutral site because of a fumble on the goalline that was returned for a touchdown the other way. Then they got blown out by Alabama. You know, like every other team that plays Alabama for the past decade. 

I think this is a massive overreaction to have Arkansas as eight or 8.5-point underdogs like they are in almost every book. I love the Razorbacks this week because Rocket Sanders is a great running back and I trust KJ Jefferson to score and keep pace. Mike Leach coaches a very unstable, high variance type of football with how much he passes and I just don’t trust it week after week in the SEC. 

Pick: Arkansas +8.5 (-115)

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