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Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks and Predictions (Back Xander Schauffele at Bay Hill?)

By Iain MacMillan

Feb 17, 2024; Pacific Palisades, California, USA; Xander Schauffele plays on the sixteenth hole
Feb 17, 2024; Pacific Palisades, California, USA; Xander Schauffele plays on the sixteenth hole / Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports
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We're entering a fun two weeks of the PGA Tour season with the Arnold Palmer Invitational set to take place this week and The Players Championship set for next week.

The best players on Tour will head to Bay Hill for this week's invitational. It will serve as the fourth signature event in the 2024 season so there's plenty of money and FedEx Cup points on the line this week.

Let's dive into the tournament and then I'll break down my three best outright bets to win.

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Arnold Palmer Invitational odds

Arnold Palmer Invitational How to Watch

  • Thursday: 2 pm - 6 pm EST (Golf Channel/Peacock)
  • Friday: 2 pm - 6 pm EST (Golf Channel/Peacock)
  • Saturday: 12:30 pm - 2:30 pm EST (Golf Channe/Peacock), 2:30 pm - 6 pm EST (NBC)
  • Sunday: 12:30 pm - 2:30 pm EST (Golf Channel/Peacoack), 2:30 pm - 5 pm EST (CNBC)

Arnold Palmer Invitational Purse

  • Date: Thursday, March 7 - Sunday, March 10
  • Purse: $20 million ($4 million winner's share)
  • Defending champion: Kurt Kitayama

Arnold Palmer Invitational Notable Golfers

Scottie Scheffler: The No. 1 ranked golfer in the world will return to action this week. He has yet to win in 2024, but he has finished inside the top 20 in eight-straight starts including T17 or better in his five 2024 tournaments. His ball striking numbers continue to be historic, but he needs his putter to come around if he wants get his first in in 2024. He won this event in 2022.

Rory McIlroy: McIlroy has struggled, by his standards, so far in 2024, but now he returns to a course where he's had a ton of success in his career. He has finished 13th or better in seven straight years at the API including winning it back in 2018. If there's any event he can find his form in, it's this one.

Arnold Palmer Invitational picks

Xander Schauffele +1600

I told myself I wasn't going to bet on Xander to win any events this year after how often I've (unsuccessfully) bet on him in the past, but I can't look past him this week. Ball striking and approach shots from 200+ are what's most important at Bay Hill and he ranks 13th in ball striking and third on Tour (first in the field) in approach proximity from 200+ yards.

He's also coming into this event in fantastic form after finishing T4 at The Genesis Invitational. He gained strokes across all for major areas compared to the field while also being long and accurate off the tee. As a cherry on top, he's second on the Tour in bogey avoidance which will be huge at a difficult course like Bay Hill.

As long as he can keep his wits about him on Sunday, he'll have a strong chance to win.

Min Woo Lee +4500

I've been waiting for the right time to bet on Min Woo Lee this season and this week's event might be the time to do it. He's coming off a Cognizant Classic where he ranked third in the field in strokes gained: tee-to-green which resulted in a T2 finish. He has also been great from 200+ yards away this season, entering this event ranks 12th in that stat.

His lack of history at this event is a little bit of a concern, missing the cut here in two-straight seasons, but there's still plenty to like about Lee this week and his recent form is extremely promising.

Corey Conners +6600

Corey Conners' ball striking numbers are tough to ignore in a week that he sits at +6600. He enters the week ranking third on Tour (first in the field) in ball striking and ninth in approach proximity from 200+ yards. He's also had some decent success at Bay Hill, finishing third here in 2021 and followed it up with an 11th and a 21st place finish the past two seasons.

As always, his short game is going to be the concern when it comes to his play, but if he can find some level of consistency with his putter, he's more than worth a bet at his current price point.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

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