Arnold Palmer Invitational picks (Scottie Scheffler will defend 2022 win)

Mar 6, 2022; Orlando, Florida, USA; Scottie Scheffler is awarded the championship trophy after
Mar 6, 2022; Orlando, Florida, USA; Scottie Scheffler is awarded the championship trophy after / Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

After a bad week of golf in terms of the strength of the field as well as my picks (0-3), we move on to the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This is the fourth elevated event of the year, which means the field is absolutely stacked.

Let's dive into the odds for the event via BetMGM Sportsbook, and then I'll break down my top three best bets.

Odds to Win Arnold Palmer Invitational

Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Bet to Win

Scottie Scheffler +900

For the majority of my betting life, I'd refuse to bet on a golfer in the top three on the odds list to win a tournament. But, my mind has changed. After what we've seen for the past year or so, not betting on Jon Rahm or Scottie Scheffler to win a tournament seems irresponsible at this point. Keep the longshot bets for non-elevated events this season.

I'm going to opt for Scheffler over Rahm, largely due to his play off-the-tee. Rahm can be wayward with his driving at time, and he won't be able to get away with that at Bay Hill. Meanwhile, Scheffler ranks second in strokes gained: off-the-tee and first in bogey avoidance, two key stats at this event.

Let's also remember that he's the defending champion at this event, so he's already proven he can get it done here.

I'm done feeling stupid almost every weekend when Scheffler is in the mix and I don't have money on him.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Top 5 Bet

Will Zalatoris Top 5 +400

Will Zalatoris thrives in events at difficult courses, and Bay Hill is certainly one of those. He's not going to win a birdie-fest, but he's worth a bet every time the PGA Tour heads to a difficult track.

Zalatoris is 6th on Tour in strokes gained: off-the-tee, 8th in bogey avoidance, and 4th in par 5 scoring. Those three stats are arguably the three most important to have success at Bay Hill, and he checks all three boxes.

Also, Zalatoris may have an ugly putting stroke, but you're probably surprised to find out he's actually 27th on Tour in strokes gained: putting.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Top 20 Bet

Keith Mitchell Top 20 +190

People forget that Keith Mitchell has a very good history at this event, finishing 6th here in 2019 and 5th in 2020.

Not only that, but he has played some of his best golf of his career over the last few weeks, racking up two top five finishes in his last three starts, including a solo 5th at the stacked Genesis Invitational.

Mitchell's game fits the course well, ranking fifth in strokes gained: off-the-tee and 51st in bogey avoidance. If there's only thing that could let him down, it's going to be his putter, but I feel comfortable taking him to finish in the top 20 at +190.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.