Arnold Palmer Invitational Prediction, Odds, and Betting Preview

The PGA Tour season is starting to really get into the swing of things (pun intended).

This week's Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill will serve as the warmup for one of the biggest tournaments of the year, the Players Championship, which is set to take place next week.

Many of the top names in golf will be competing this week, but the defending champion Bryson DeChambeau, has withdrawn from the event due to an injury.

Let's start off by looking at the top 10 golfers on the odds list to win this week, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Odds to Win the Arnold Palmer Invitational

• Jon Rahm +800
• Rory McIlroy +1200
• Viktor Hovland +1600
• Scottie Scheffler +1600
• Hideki Matsuyama +2200
• Sungjae Im +2500
• Matthew Fitzpatrick +2800
• Will Zalatoris +2800
• Adam Scott +3000
• Marc Leishman +3300

How to Handicap Bay Hill

Bay Hill is one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour's schedule. It measures approximately 7,466 yards long and it plays as a Par 72. The four Par 5s are usually reachable, but the Par 3s and 4s are all longer than average. In fact, all four Par 3s measure at 199 yards or longer. Being able to score on the Par 5s and walk away with pars on the Par 3s will be crucial this week.

With how long the Par 4s play, and how important the Par 5s are, strength off the tee is paramount at Bay Hill. That's exactly why and how Bryson DeChambeau won here last year. Your handicapping process should begin by looking at how long and how accurate golfers are with their drivers.

Finally, this is not an event that you want to bet on bad putters. Bay Hill features some of the trickiest greens on Tour, so don't waste your money on someone who struggles with their flat stick.

5 Key Stats for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

• Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee
• Ball Striking
• Approach Proximity from 200+ Yards
• Par 3 Efficiency 200-225 Yards
• Strokes Gained: Putting

Picks to Win the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Rory McIlroy +1200 (1 Unit)

I can't pass up betting on Rory McIlroy this week. He's the 2018 winner of the event, and Bay Hill has historically been one of the best courses for him in his career. It makes sense why, when you consider this track is designed to give good drivers of the golf ball a huge boost. McIlroy leads all golfers in the field in strokes gained per round at Bay Hill, averaging +2.69.

He's also quietly been in fantastic form, despite not playing a lot in 2022. Since winning the CJ Cup in October, he's gone T6, 18, T12, 3, and then a T10 at the Genesis Open two weeks ago.

Matt Fitzpatrick +2800 (1 Unit)

I think Matt Fitzpatrick presents by far the best value on the board. He's a guy whose been playing well recently, has had past success at Bay Hill, and whose style of play fits this course to perfection.

He ranks second on the Tour this season in total strokes gained which includes 12th in putting, second in approach, and 35th in off the tee. More importantly, he's fifth in proximity on approach shots from 200+ yards, which is a massive advantage at Bay Hill.

He's also finished 12th or better in four straight starts, and he's finished in the top 10 at this event in the past three seasons, including a second place finish in 2019. At +2800 (bet $100 to profit $2,800), Fitzpatrick is certainly worth a bet.

Chris Kirk +8000 (0.5 Unit)

If I asked you who has averaged the most birdies at Bay Hill over the past five years, there's a zero percent chance you'd guess Chris Kirk, but that's surprisingly the correct answer.

Not only that, but he's been playing some solid golf in recent weeks, including a T7 finish at last week's Honda Classic and a T14 finish at the WM Phoenix Open the week before. He ranks 41st in strokes gained: off-the-tee, 18th in both strokes gained: tee-to-green and strokes gained: total, and 25th in 200+ yard par 3 efficiency. Finally, he's finished 15th or better at this event in three straight starts.

Find me a better bet at 80/1 this week. You won't be able to.

Check out Iain's detailed 2022 betting record here.