Ask the Oddsmakers: Evaluating Each Divisional Round Game from Behind the Counter

NFL Divisional Weekend is upon us with four marquee matchups starting on Saturday afternoon going through Sunday.

We have plenty of preview content for you on all four games from odds to the prop market, but we had the pleasure of speaking with WynnBET Sportsbook Junior Trader John Manica to hear about what it was like setting the odds and handling the betting market in the week leading up to these games.

Derrick Henry's Return Looms Over Titans-Bengals

The biggest news out of the opening game of Divisional Weekend is the return of Titans star running back Derrick Henry, who has been out since Week 9 with a foot injury.

There will be a ton of interest in Henry's player props in this one as last season's rushing leader comes back, but setting the line is far from a perfect science, as Manica notes.

"The Henry prop is a whole different challenge.  I would try to assess his health as best as possible then come up with a percentage of the amount of the usual workload that I believed he would handle in a playoff game.  I would then hang that number and move aggressively if I saw a lot of action come immediately on either the over or the under.  I doubt that 100% of his normal workload is obtainable in this playoff game.  I would probably set it at 75% of his normal production levels.”

49ers Most Popular Underdog of the Weekend

The San Francisco 49ers were the lone under dog to win outright on Wild Card weekend and now head to Green Bay to face the likely MVP Aaron Rodgers and the No. 1 seed Green Bay Packers.

Despite injuries on the Niners sideline, they are attracting a ton of attention from bettors in the days leading up to the matchup.

“The 49ers are the most popular money line dog currently," Manica told BetSided.  Like last week, the biggest dog does tends to be the most popular. It did not end well for the Steelers last week.”

Want to hear more about betting the San Francisco 49ers as well as all the best bets for Divisional Weekend from the BetSided staff, check out our best bets video below!

Rams and Bills Generating Sharp Action

Sharps have fired on two road underdogs in the Rams and Bills this weekend over at WynnBET. Maniaca makes it clear that this is setting up for a Pros vs. Joes showdown in these two games.

"“We are seeing the pro action on the Rams +3 and the Bills +1.5," Manica siad. "The public sees the short spreads on Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes both at home and will relentlessly fire away.  The underlying handicap beneath the games paints a less than straight forward path to victory for the short chalks.”

Both the Bucs and Chiefs are short home favorites, but each lost to their "sharp" side opponents earlier this season. Can there be more trouble come this weekend with a spot in the Conference Championship on the line.

In terms of difficulty to handicap, Manica believes the Bills and Chiefs game is the most challenging, considering it is the shortest spread and a few somewhat lucky breaks are going to determine this game.

"The Bills and Chiefs game is by far the hardest to handicap," he said. "The number is the closest to zero with a high total.  Both quarterbacks are capable of double-digit comebacks.  It usually comes down to red zone defense and turnovers.”