Ask the Oddsmakers: Is Jonathan Taylor a Legit MVP Candidate?

In 2020, Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry became only the eighth rusher in NFL history to run for over 2,000 yards; and didn't sniff a shot at the NFL MVP.

Meanwhile, Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is now rising up odds boards insanely quickly to win the same award despite being on pace for less yards.

So how is it that Henry wouldn't even get considered, but Taylor with worse stats is getting much more attention?

Over at WynnBET, Taylor, after opening at 150/1 to win the MVP, has now shot all the way up to +1800. The Colts third-year running back leads the league in rushing by a wide margin, while also scoring a monster 13 touchdowns, 10 of which have come from 20-plus yards out.

I asked WynnBET Senior Trader Sawyer Johnson for his perspective on whether Taylor legitimately has a shot to be the first running back to win MVP since Adrian Peterson in 2012.

(There's) some to the public buying in, some to liability we have on him, and some because it doesn't seem like anyone else wants to win the MVP this year.

Our Matt De Saro also pointed out earlier this week that history indicates that in order for a running back to win MVP, some sort of major record must be on the line.

One thing that all of those running back MVP seasons have in common is they came during years which records were broken or very nearly broken. In 2012, Adrian Peterson came eight yards of breaking Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record of 2,105 yards. In 2005, Shaun Alexander tied Priest Holmes’ single-season record with 27 rushing touchdowns for the Seahawks. The following season, LaDanian Tomlinson broke that record with 28 rushing touchdowns for the Chargers, and Marshall Faulk earned his MVP by beating Barry Sanders’ record with 2,429 yards from scrimmage.

The Colts have the 11th-most difficult remaining schedule with their opponent's record at 33-30-0 this season. If Taylor continues down this pace, he'll remain in the conversation. But considering the value gone from the table, along with a notable history of running backs not taking home the award, I believe it's not a longshot worth jumping in on.