Ask the Oddsmakers: Understanding 'Implied Probability' to Win Your Futures Bets

Several weeks into both the college football and NFL season, bettors are still looking for the best value to lock in on potential futures bets for MVP or the Super Bowl. The same can still be said for baseball season with the playoffs rapidly approaching!

Meanwhile in the NBA, futures odds are starting to get traction with the season set to start in the next several weeks. It's a fun time to be a bettor heading into October!

If you've never bet on futures before, the concept is basically to get out your crystal ball, and determine whether the odds set on a certain team long-term lines up with the right probability that it will hit.

For example, the Los Angeles Dodgers are +275 (bet $100 to win $275) to win the World Series over at WynnBET. The Dodgers were the favorites to take home the Fall Classic at the start of the season, but despite one of the best records in baseball, they could still find themselves matching up against the St. Louis Cardinals in a one-game Wild Card game just to get into the divisional round.

Even with the most talent in baseball, are the Dodgers' odds of +275, considering the one-game potential elimination game ahead, worth spending? I would say no. There are too many factors in play, as well as baseball's wide-ranging set of outcomes in the playoffs.

This leads to a conversation about implied probability.

What is implied probability and why is it helpful for bettors?

All implied probability is, is calculating the odds into a percentage - the expected probability of what is likely to happen. WynnBET trader Patrick Wall explained how they calculate it, and how it can be an important teaching moment for bettors:

"Implied probability is a daunting term. It sounds like it would be difficult to calculate, but it is not," says Wall. "It is also the key for anyone to find value in their betting... This principle can be applied to any of these terms or any selection on the WynnBET menu!"

Now that you have the odds, it's just basic math. Take for example the Dodgers at odds of +275 and adding 100 to it for a total of 375. Then, take 100 and divide it by that number.

• 100/(275+100) = 0.266, or 26.6%.

This would indicate that WynnBET values the Dodgers as having a 26.6% chance to win the World Series at their current odds. The team that's currently in first place, the San Francisco Giants, hold +800 odds, giving them an implied probability of 11.1% chance of winning a championship based on the oddsmakers' projection. If you believe the Giants are a better team and are more likely to finish with a better record, it would be advantageous to bet the Giants based on the odds set!

Whether it's for MLB, NFL, college football, or any other futures odds you see posted at WynnBET, take a quick second to do the math, and you may notice that the teams you like (or don't like), may offer opportunistic values to bet on them long-term.

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