Ask the Oddsmakers: Which Teams are the Sportsbooks' Biggest Liability for NFL Week 2?

There's a reason that public bettors want to be on the side of the sportsbooks. The problem is, they rarely are.

Last week, the public took a beating in Week 1 of the NFL with underdogs having a field day to start the season. Underdogs went 9-7 straight up, while going 12-4 against the spread.

So after a rough first week, where are public bettors looking to go in Week 2? Are they going to back the teams that made a good first impression in Week 1? Or perhaps back the underdogs after fading them last week?

“If anything, it’s the opposite," says WynnBET Trader Sawyer Johnson. "The teams that looked good during Week 1 have been taking the most public action this week.”

Late Saturday evening, WynnBET announced the three games of the week where they currently hold their highest liability: Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings, L.A. Rams (-3.5) at Indianapolis Colts, and the Houston Texans (+490) moneyline at Cleveland Browns.

Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) | TOTAL: 48

The Rams were one of the few favorites to come out and dominate last week. In their standalone matchup at home against the Chicago Bears, the Rams were dominant, winning 34-14 in their home opener as Matthew Stafford saw his MVP odds move from +1500 all the way to second at +750.

With the Rams' impressive victory along with the Colts 28-16 home loss to Seattle, WynnBET bettors have jumped all over L.A. Just under 81% of the bets have come in on the Rams, with slightly over 87% of the money.

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-13) | TOTAL: 48

This one is a bit shocking. The Texans looked far more competent than most expected in their 37-21 blowout win over Jacksonville at home. Via NFL.com, the Texans defense intercepted rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence three times, which tied the amount they had all season in 2020!

Even the oddsmakers were surprised at the amount of action the Texans are taking against a Cleveland team that ended up covering a large spread in KC.

"The Cleveland Browns looked solid against the Kansas City Chiefs," said Johnson. "I guess that cover was not as important as the outright win. Maybe people are just trying to cover their survivor pool entries?”

Still, the Texans are projected by WynnBET to finish with the worst record in the league, with Super Bowl odds of +50000. Yet, oddsmakers have moved this line from -12.5 to -13 in favor of Cleveland, who nearly upset the Kansas City Chiefs on the road last week. The public clearly believes the Texans have some magic left in them, despite being nearly two-touchdown favorites, with 67.4% of moneyline bets coming on Houston (+490), along with 81% of the money.

Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) | TOTAL: 50.5

The biggest liability of the week is on the Arizona Cardinals, who beat down the Tennessee Titans on the road in a 38-13 as three-point underdogs. Like Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray saw his MVP odds move all the way up to +1000 over at WynnBET, placing him third behind Mahomes and Stafford.

Meanwhile, the Vikings blew a late lead to the Cincinnati Bengals on the road, losing 27-24 on a game-winning 33 yard field goal. Despite 96% of bets on Arizona, along with 96.5% of the money; WynnBET has actually moved this line in favor of the Vikings; down from +4.5 to +3.5.

With that much liability in play, the reverse line movement may indicate that the books may know something we don't. Professional bettors, AKA "sharps" seem to like the Vikings in this matchup.

Are you backing the books in Week 2? Or going with the public?
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