Ask the Oddsmakers: Why Are NFL MVP Odds So Varied on Dak Prescott?

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott could not have asked for a better start to the season.

Well, maybe a win on the road for a 4-0 start against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would be a given, but after a tumultuous 2020 season where their franchise quarterback was lost for the season in Week 5, it's been about as good as one could expect.

Dallas had the lead late in the NFL season opener against Tampa Bay thanks to a touchdown drive orchestrated by Prescott, but there was still a few seconds left on the clock, giving Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champions one last shot to get downfield and kick a game winning field goal.

Since then, the Cowboys have won three straight games, are on top by multiple games in the NFC East, and have been a bettors' dream come true; covering the spread in all of their matchups in 2021.

As for Prescott, he's off to another terrific start, completing 75.2% of his passes while throwing for 10 touchdowns to just two interceptions. Only Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford have more touchdowns, with Prescott tied with Tom Brady for third in the league.

Yet Dak Prescott's MVP odds at WynnBET appear to be lower than consensus across the sports betting market. His consensus line is right around +800 at several sportsbooks, but at WynnBET he's still at +1200.

Is the WynnBET team simply bearish on his outlook? Or is there more liability elsewhere on other candidates?

Why are Dak Prescott's MVP odds so low?

For this latest "Ask the Oddsmakers," WynnBET NFL senior trader Motoi Pearson weighed in on why their book in particular isn't concerned about the increased value on Prescott.

“For the most part, there is some liability on a few selections we’d like to protect so we aren’t shying away from hanging Prescott out there a while,” Pearson told BetSided.

Here's where WynnBET currently has their NFL MVP candidates along with their odds:

Odds to Win NFL MVP

• Kyler Murray: +450
• Justin Herbert: +450
• Patrick Mahomes: +650
• Matthew Stafford: +750
• Josh Allen: +750
• Tom Brady: +750
• Aaron Rodgers: +1000
• Dak Prescott: +1200
• Lamar Jackson: +2000
• Russell Wilson: +2000
• Derek Carr: +2000

We previously learned about finding value in futures betting in one of our recent "Ask the Oddsmakers" series, as WynnBET trader Patrick Wall discussed implied probability, and unpacking how bettors can find it without it feeling as overwhelming as it may initially seem.

In the case of Prescott, WynnBET is saying that he has roughly a 7.7% chance of winning the NFL MVP, and are comfortable keeping him for now at a 12/1 potential payout if he does.

With matchups against the Giants, Vikings, Falcons and Chiefs in four of the next six games, Prescott's odds may start to get more notice as he faces several of the worst defenses in the NFL.

Now's the time to jump on board while the value is still available.

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