Astros vs. Angels prediction and odds for Sunday, July 16 (Fade undermanned Astros)

The Angels are clinging to life in the American League and a win over Houston in the rubber match today would go a long way to helping their chances and keeping Shohei Ohtani in Anaheim.

Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman (2)
Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman (2) / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Yesterday was an absolute slugfest in this AL West series and the Los Angeles Angels were able to outlast the Houston Astros in Anaheim, 13-12 in 10 innings.

That broke a six game losing streak for LA that bridged the All-Star break. The Astros are now 51-42 and fell to three games behind Texas for the top spot in the division, and the Angels are 46-47 and clinging to what little life is left in their season. 

For the rubber match today the Astros will hand the ball to Cristian Javier who is 7-1 in 17 starts despite a 4.34 ERA. The Angels will counter with 4-2 Tyler Anderson who made his most recent trip to the mound out of the bullpen and is 4-2 with a 5.25 ERA in 15 starts and that one relief appearance. 

The Astros are road favorites in the rubber match today. 

Astros vs. Angels odds, run line and total

Astros vs. Angels prediction and pick

Houston seems like a team that would do damage against a lefty like Tyler Anderson, but that’s at full strength and they’re far from that right now.

Houston is missing Jose Atluve and Yordan Alvarez right now and could be without Jeremy Peña who is listed as day-to-day. Alvarez has a .988 OPS against lefties this season and while Altuve hasn’t been great against lefties in a small sample he is one of their best right-handed bats. Peña has an .809 OPS facing left-handers. 

With those hitters, particularly Alvarez, Houston is still only 12th in team OPS against lefties this season and 14th in runs driven in. You would think that Alex Bregman and Jose Abreu would carry the team in their stead, but Bregman is hitting .170 against lefties with just two home runs and Abreu has a .655 OPS against lefties. 

Anderson has a FIP of 4.64 which isn’t good, but is a lot better than his ERA and could signal some better performances to come. His last two times out have been successful and today could be a very good one. 

It’s hard to back the Angels without Mike Trout, but frankly Alvarez is a bigger loss for Houston than Trout is for LA. I’ll back the Angels after winning a thriller last night. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change