Astros vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Odds for Sunday, May 1 (Back a Pitchers' Duel North of the Border)

We've got a dominant pitching matchup in Toronto for Sunday's matinee between two projected top teams in the American League.

The Blue Jays (14-8), despite a 7-3 record over their last 10 games were just passed by the streaking New York Yankees for the top spot in the AL East. They send right-hander Kevin Gausman to the mound who has yet to allow a walk in 24.2 innings this season.

Meanwhile, the Astros are starting to work their way out of their early season funk, and could be set to take off later this month having only played six home games in the month of April. Left-hander Framber Valdez makes his fifth start of the season today for Houston as he looks to work back towards his dominance from the last several years.

Let's check out the latest odds for today's series finale from the Rogers Centre from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Astros vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Total

Run Line:

• Astros: +1.5 (-175)
• Blue Jays: -1.5 (+145)

Moneyline:

• Astros: +136
• Blue Jays: -146

Total: 7.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Astros vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

Last week, I wrote about Gausman's brilliant start to the season in Toronto. So far in four starts, he's recorded a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 31:0 in just under 25 innings this season. He's actually improved in every start so far this season, making a very compelling case for AL Pitcher of the Month (but may lose out to Logan Gilbert of the Mariners). Gausman also leads all AL pitchers by a wide margin in wins above replacement (WAR) over at Fangraphs.

Today, I'll not just back him, but also take Valdez to help come through with the under 7.5.

Valdez has had two excellent starts this year, mixed in with a few rough outings in the middle. He's coming off a very strong performance vs. the Texas Rangers his last time out; going six strong innings with no earned runs; the second time he's done that this year. Valdez's strikeouts per nine innings is down quite a bit from the last few seasons, but he's still a dominant pitcher who really has just one bad start to his name this year.

For those worried about Toronto owning the lefty-righty matchup, the Blue Jays do have plenty of thumpers in their lineup that hit from the right-side, but sluggers like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. actually have opposite splits and do better vs. right-handed pitchers than lefties.

I'm also tracking a lot of early movement this Sunday towards the under, and recommend jumping on board at -110 odds before the juice keeps climbing.

PICK: UNDER 7.5 (-110)

Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting plays in real-time HERE