Astros vs. Guardians Prediction and Odds for Thursday, August 4 (Vintage Verlander)
By Josh Yourish
The Houston Astros, dropped two of three games to the Red Sox in an ALCS rematch from last postseason, and now head up to Cleveland to face the Guardians. The Astros have a stranglehold on the AL West, up 11 games on Seattle at 66-38, and Cleveland is just a game behind Minnesota. The Guardians are 54-50.
Game 1 of this four-gamer features the 14-3 aging superstar, Justin Verlander and his dazzling 1.81 ERA against Zach Plesac. He and his 2-9 record and ERA north of four.
You can find odds for tonight's mismatch on the mound in Cleveland at WynnBET Sportsbook.
Astros vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line
- Astros -1.5 (-115)
- Guardians +1.5 (-105)
Moneyline
- Astros -175
- Guardians +160
Total
- 8.0 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Astros vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick
An amazing stat about Justin Verlander’s season so far is that he has gotten the decision in 17 of his 19 starts. In an era of starting pitchers getting the hook earlier and earlier in games, the 37 year old Verlander is an old school starter having a vintage season. He is 14-3 in those decisions and the Astros are 15-4 in his starts. They have won his last six starts and nine of his last 10, dating back to June 1.
Simply put, when Justin Verlander pitches, the Houston Astros win. His fastball velocity is still in the 73rd percentile of the league and his chase rate and his chase and strikeout rates are well above league average. Verlander’s season maybe hasn’t been as dominant as his 1.81 ERA would indicate, but it is not too far off, even with a fielding independent pitching of 3.01.
Zach Plesac maybe hasn’t been as bad as a 2-9 record would indicate. In July, he only received one run of support in three of his four losses he only received one run of support. With that being said, it’s very possible that Verlander limits the Guardians to just one run again.
Pick: Astros -1.5 (-115)
Follow all Josh’s bets HERE