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Astros vs. Mariners Prediction and Odds for Friday, May 27 (Lopsided Pitching Matchup Gives Edge to Houston)

By Joe Summers

The AL Cy Young favorite hasn't allowed a run in his last three starts as the Astros take on the Mariners today
The AL Cy Young favorite hasn't allowed a run in his last three starts as the Astros take on the Mariners today / Carmen Mandato/GettyImages
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We've got two teams heading in opposite directions as the 18-27 Seattle Mariners host the 29-16 Houston Astros tonight at 9:40 PM EST.

Seattle has lost six of seven and hopes starting pitcher Chris Flexen can reverse their fortunes. He'll need to summon the strength of David to slay a Goliath like Justin Verlander, and his recent performance suggests he needs to sharpen his slingshot. Flexen has a 6.98 ERA this month and Houston has lost five of his starts in a row.

Verlander just might be the front-runner for the American League Cy Young; fully embracing his Goliath role. He hasn't allowed a run in three consecutive outings, compiling a 0.70 ERA this month to pair with a sparkling 4-0 record.

Can Seattle conjure up a miracle of biblical proportions to get a much-needed home win? Or will Houston improve to 19-6 in May?

Let's analyze this Astros vs Mariners matchup using the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook. Miracles do happen sometimes, right?

Astros vs Mariners Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Astros -1.5 (-125)
  • Mariners +1.5 (+105)

Moneyline:

  • Astros: -205
  • Mariners: +182

Total:

  • 7.0 (Over -120/Under +100)

Astros vs Mariners Prediction and Pick

I don't think it's possible to make this line large enough. Odds of -1,000,000 would still be a value on Houston. There's no chance, no way, no how the Astros are losing today. Put the mortgage on it, put the kids on it, channel your inner Iain MacMillan and put a tattoo bet on it, for crying out loud.

(Editor's Note - we don't recommend putting a mortgage or your children on any wager)

In addition to being a significantly better offensive team than Seattle, Houston fields the league's best defense. But their largest advantage comes on the mound. Verlander has allowed just three hits total in his last 13 road innings, and overall carries an absolutely-insane 0.55 ERA through five road starts.

The guy is the best pitcher in the American League. Again. Houston has won his last five starts by a combined 25-5 score. It's downright ridiculous.

Chris Flexen has the misfortune of taking Verlander on, and his MLB Statcast pitching profile looks like a gender reveal party:

from Baseball Savant
from Baseball Savant /

That's a lot of blue. With wind blowing straight out to center field, the Astros' lineup should feast. Seattle is a pathetic 1-7 when Flexen starts this year and Houston should extend that streak of futility.

In their last 10 contests as a road favorite, the Astros are 8-2 with five straight wins on the run line. Don't worry about scheduling a tattoo appointment, you're not going to lose this bet.

Pick: Astros -1.5 (-125)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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