Astros vs. Phillies Prediction and Odds for World Series Game 4 (Buy in on Both Offenses Wednesday Night)
Houston Astros starting pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. might as well have had a batting practice screen in front of the pitcher's mound in Game 3 on Tuesday evening.
The right-hander appeared to clearly be tipping his pitches in the Philadelphia Phillies 7-0 rout of the Astros in Philadelphia, taking a 2-1 series lead and consequently "tipping" the series odds in their favor.
For the first time this postseason, the Astros are not favored to win a playoff series, but they are slight favorites on the road in Game 4 tonight, when Cristian Javier takes on Game 1 starter Aaron Nola.
Here are the latest odds for this evening's matchup from Citizens Bank Park:
Astros vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total for World Series Game 4
Astros vs. Phillies Betting Trends for World Series Game 4
- Phillies are 6-0 SU at home during the postseason, outscoring opponents 42-15
- Astros are 4-0 in their last Game 4's of the playoffs
- Over is 6-0 in Phillies' last six games when allowing two runs or less the game before
- Over is 4-0-1 in Phillies last five games following a win
- Underdogs are 19-17 ATS in the postseason
- Home teams are 22-15 overall in the playoffs
Astros vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick for World Series Game 4
I'm backing the over at 7.5, especially with even odds as of this morning.
The Phillies were a run away from hitting the total by themselves yesterday, but over 8 bettors got no help from the Astros last night in the shutout loss. It would be fairly remarkable if the Phillies can limit the Astros to zero runs again, but it did happen once this season back on September 22-23 when the Baltimore Orioles outscored the Astros 0-8 in two consecutive games.
Meanwhile, there are a few noticeable trends to take note of as to why we could see more runs from both sides tonight.
Astros pitcher Cristian Javier has looked solid during the postseason, but only has one start the entire playoffs; going 6.2 innings over two games. His ERA is impressive at 1.35, but his peripherals hint that he could regress relatively soon with a 4.31 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), and 4.36 expected FIP (xFIP).
As for Phillies starter Aaron Nola, he's been two different pitchers during the playoffs. After not allowing a run in his first two starts, he's given up 11 earned runs in his last two games, including four home runs over his last 9 innings pitched.
Even if Nola gets back on track, the Phillies' bullpen, despite terrific postseason numbers, had plenty of issues during the regular season, ranking 22nd out of 30 in bullpen ERA, and 28th in walks/nine innings.
Rather than take a side in Game 4, I'll play the over as both offenses go back and forth this evening.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.