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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks (Back Tom Hoge to Successfully Defend Title)

By Iain MacMillan

Aug 18, 2022; Wilmington, Delaware, USA; Tom Hoge plays his shot from the third tee during the first
Aug 18, 2022; Wilmington, Delaware, USA; Tom Hoge plays his shot from the third tee during the first / Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
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The PGA Tour continues its California swing this week with the Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

At last week's Farmers Insurance Open, Brendan Steele tried to choke away a Top 20 finish with a 3-over Sunday round, but held on to the spot by a single stroke. As a result, we walked away with a small profit. We now sit at 4-10 for +1.5 units through the first four events of the season.

Let's dive into this weeks event, starting off with the top 20 odds to win via BetMGM Sportsbook, and finishing with my three best bets.

Odds to Win Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Pebble Beach Pro-Am Best Bet to Win

Tom Hoge +2000

I'm going to back last year's winner of the event to win again in 2023.

Tom Hoge's style of play fits this event to perfect. You want to target pure ball strikers this week. Not much else matters. Play off-the-tee is nice, but not necessary and you would obviously not want to bet on someone with a terrible short game, but strokes gained: approach is absolutely the area you want to key in on.

Heading into the tournament, Hoge leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach. Not only that, but he's dialed in with his wedges and short irons, ranking third approach proximity from 100-125 yards and 25th in approach proximity from 125-150 yards.

He's set up well to compete in this event once again.

Pebble Peach Pro-Am Top 10 Bets

Nick Taylor Top 10 +500

I'll back another former winner, Nick Taylor, to finish in the top 10 this week. This has continuously been one of his best events on the calendar. On top of his 2020 win, he has a 10th place finish in 2017 and a 14th place finish last year.

He's also shown some flashes of greatness early in the season, finishing T6 at the Fortinet Championship and T7 at the Sony Open. He ranks 32nd in strokes gained: approach heading into this week.

Nick Hardy Top 10 +450

Nick Hardy doesn't have the history at Pebble Beach as the other two golfers I'm betting on, but his numbers do lead me to believe he'll have a strong week this time around.

He ranks fifth in Tour in strokes gained: approach this season, and 25th in greens in regultion. He has struggled with his putter, coming in at 162nd in strokes gained: putting, but I much prefer betting on a good ball striker and hope they get hot with the putter, than a good putter and hope he gets hot with his irons.

I love his price at +450.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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