Athletics vs. Astros Predictions and Odds for Saturday, July 16 (Fade Verlander?)
By Reed Wallach
I know it seems like a classic lay it with the Astros with Justin Verlander on the mound, but should we?
The Astros star is rolling along after missing last season due to Tommy John surgery on the first place Stros, but is there some regression looming? He faces last place Oakland on Saturday at home as a massive favorite, but is this too expensive?
Let's first break down the odds then find the best bet:
Athletics vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Total
Run Line:
- Athletics: +1.5 (+130)
- Astros: -1.5 (-160)
Moneyline:
- Athletics: +300
- Astros: -360
Total:
- 7.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Athletics vs. Astros Prediction and Pick
It'd be easy to say "take Houston at -360 it's fine" but no, that's not what I'm here to do. Let's look at Justin Verlander's numbers, which are a bit of smoke and mirrors at this point. He has a 2.00 ERA that is supported by a 3.27 FIP. His strikeout rate is down considerably since missing last season, down over two strikeouts per 9 innings.
Now, he is playing the A's, who are the worst team in baseball, but I can't comfortably back the Astros at this price. Oakland sends out lefty Jared Koenig who should have the edge over the Houston lineup that is 21st in batting average against left handed pitching.
Verlander's regression is coming, his numbers say so, and it can come against any team, even the worst one in baseball. I'll take a stab at the + money run line on Oakland, who can be more frisky than the odds indicate.
LEAN: Athletics +1.5 (+130)
Track all of Reed's bets at Betstamp HERE!