Athletics vs. Orioles Prediction and Odds for Sunday, Sept. 4 (O's Have Been Dominant at Home)

The Baltimore Orioles are just 7.5 games out of the American League East lead and 1.5 games back in the AL wild card race with just over a month left in the 2022 regular season. 

It’s a huge step forward for a team many people expected to be among the worst in baseball this season, and the O’s have a matchup with a team that is actually one of the worst in baseball in the Oakland Athletics on Sunday. 

Oakland has traded away just about every key veteran on its roster, and it finds itself at the bottom of the AL West standings. Adrian Martinez (3-3, 5.28 ERA) gets the ball for the A’s against Baltimore’s Spenser Watkins (4-5, 4.26 ERA) on Sunday.

Let’s jump into the odds for this game:

Athletics vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total

Athletics vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

The O’s need every win they can find right now if they want to keep pace in the wild card race, and this is a perfect spot to back them at home. 

Baltimore is the best team on the run line this season, mainly because it has been set as an underdog more often than not, but it also has been dominant at home, even as a favorite. 

The O’s are 9-9 on the run line as home favoires, but they’re an even more impressive 13-5 straight up in those games (winning 72.2% of the time, third best in MLB). 

Now, why should we trust this trend against Oakland? 

Well, outside of the fact that the A’s are one of the worst teams in baseball (29th in team OPS and 23rd in team ERA) and have lost four straight, Martinez has not exactly been lights out in his rookie season. 

He did slow down a struggling New York Yankees team in his last start, but Martinez had a 7.85 ERA in his four previous starts, and he failed to make it out of the fifth inning in three of those outings. 

Watkins is coming off a rough performance against the Cleveland Guardians, but he’s been far more consistent in 2022, allowing more than three runs in just three of his 19 starts. In addition to that, the O’s have a far superior bullpen in this matchup ranking fourth in bullpen ERA this season compared to Oakland at No. 22. 

Give me the O’s to grab a win at home and inch closer in the wild card chase. 

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.