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Athletics vs. Rangers Prediction and Odds for Monday, August 15 (Kaprielian Gives Oakland Pitching Edge)

By Joe Summers

The Athletics are 6-2 in James Kaprielian's last eight starts, including two wins over the Rangers
The Athletics are 6-2 in James Kaprielian's last eight starts, including two wins over the Rangers / Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports
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I don't always recommend betting on the Oakland Athletics, but when I do, it's because James Kaprielian is on the mound.

Kaprielian allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his last nine starts, compiling a 2.39 ERA in that stretch. Oakland is 6-2 in his last eight outings, including two wins over these Texas Rangers.

Glenn Otto starts for Texas, who are 1-8 in Otto's last nine outings. He's looked better this month but struggles with command and surrendered at least one home run in each of his past five starts.

Can Kaprielian stay hot to deliver Oakland an upset victory or will Otto get back on track?

Let's take a peak at the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help analyze this Athletics vs Rangers matchup:

Athletics vs Rangers Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Athletics +1.5 (-150)
  • Rangers -1.5 (+125)

Moneyline:

  • Athletics: +145
  • Rangers: -155

Total:

  • 8.0 (Over -115/Under -105)

Athletics vs Rangers Prediction and Pick

Glenn Otto should not be a favorite over James Kaprielian. No ifs, ands, or buts about it.

Otto's 5.56 expected ERA is an atrocious number and would be the second-worst among all qualified pitchers if he had enough innings to qualify. His underlying metrics are poor too, as he's compiled a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) above 6.72 in three of his last five starts. For reference, Marco Gonzales has the worst FIP in MLB at 5.11, so Otto's numbers are horrible.

Just look at Otto's MLB Statcast Pitching Profile and tell me with a straight face he should be a favorite:

Yeah, you can't. Especially not against Kaprielian, who has a FIP under 2.79 in three of his last four road starts.

Look at that focus! Look at that hand-eye coordination! That's our guy, without a doubt.

The last time Kaprielian faced the Rangers, he threw five shutout innings. The last time Otto faced the A's, he allowed four runs in 4.2 innings. With Texas losing four of five as home favorites and Oakland's lineup trending up, the value lies in the road underdog.

Pick: Athletics ML (+145)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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