Atlanta Falcons 2021-2022 Season Preview, Odds and Win Totals

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There was still a glimmer of hope for the Atlanta Falcons heading into the 2020 season, After a tough 1-7 start in 2019, Dan Quinn’s squad finished with four consecutive wins en route to a 7-9 season. 

Unfortunately, the feel-good from the season before never materialized the following year. Atlanta suffered five straight losses to begin 2020, including two heartbreaking comebacks against the Cowboys in Bears in Weeks 2 and 3. Quinn lost his job, Raheem Morris took over the rest of the way, but wasn’t retained after going 4-7.

Now, the Falcons are hitting the reset button with a first-time head coach in former Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. The 39-year old helped revitalize the career of quarterback Ryan Tannehill, and unleashed Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown in a heavy play-action style offense in Tennessee. He’ll have his hands full with no Julio Jones for the first time since 2011, as well as Matt Ryan approaching his age 36 season, but he’ll have at least a few years to build the Falcons back to respectability.

Atlanta Falcons 2021 Outlook

The aforementioned Ryan will still have plenty of opportunities to put up solid numbers in 2021, thanks to several remaining playmakers on the roster. Calvin Ridley is projected to lead the NFL in receiving yards according to the oddsmakers at WynnBET this season after finishing 2020 with 90 catches for nearly 1,400 yards. The trade of Julio Jones to Tennessee leaves 68 vacated targets in an injury-plagued year, but Ridley proved his worth as a number one option and will be called upon heavily to lead the way.

Ryan will have a new lead running back in Mike Davis. The 28-year old back is coming off a career year in Carolina where he rushed for 642 yards, as well as catching 59 passes for 373 yards and 8 total touchdowns. From a fantasy perspective, Davis finished as the No. 12 running back in points-per-reception leagues a season ago.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Falcons will rely on Smith’s former coaching mate at Tennessee, Dean Pees to help turn that unit around. Atlanta gave up the fourth most yards in the NFL in 2020, trailing only the Texans, Jaguars and Lions for worst in the league. They’ll look to attack their biggest weakness with free agent safeties Duron Harman and Erik Harris added to the mix, as well as improved seasons from team leaders in linebacker Deion Jones, defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, and second-year cornerback A.J. Terrell.

Atlanta Falcons 2021 NFL Draft

The Falcons may have lost a major playmaker in Jones, but they drafted potentially the highest upside skill position player No. 4 overall in tight end Kyle Pitts from Florida. With four picks in the top 108, Atlanta also snagged another safety in UCF’s Ritchie Grant, shored up their offensive line in the third round with Jalen Mayfield out of Michigan, and grabbed another corner in the 4th round with Darren Hall from San Diego State.

Atlanta Falcons Odds: Division Conference, Super Bowl

WynnBET Sportsbook has the Falcons tied with the Carolina Panthers for the highest odds behind the Buccaneers (-220) and Saints (+300) to win the division at +850.

With regards to Super Bowl 56, Atlanta has +3000 odds to represent the NFC, and +7500 odds to shock the NFL world with a championship, tied with the Las Vegas Raiders and Philadelphia Eagles.

Atlanta Falcons Regular Season Win Total: 7.5 WINS | OVER (-130), UNDER (+105)

Ben Heisler:

I really like Arthur Smith, and think he’s in a position to eventually succeed in Atlanta. The addition of Dean Pees as the unofficial “Head Coach of the Defense” is a really smart move in Year 1 for a young head coach, similar to what we saw from Kyle Shanahan (Robert Saleh), Sean McVay (Wade Phillips), and Matt Nagy (Vic Fangio) when they took over as the offensive-minded guru. As he grows into the position, he’ll be able to focus more of his attention on both sides of the ball, being more of the CEO of the team as opposed to one-sided coach.

With all that said, there’s just so much turnover heading into his first year.

Their most consistent wide receiver (although injured last year) is gone, and while Calvin Ridley is talented enough to take over the number one spot, that’s lofty expectations to anoint him the next Julio over a full season. Kyle Pitts is incredibly exciting, but tight ends have a long history of struggling through their first year in the league.

The defense should be slightly improved, but even if they jump closer to the middle of the pack, that’s almost a record improvement from just one year.

I have concerns about Matt Ryan’s age and skillset, especially if the Falcons plan to find their next quarterback of the future soon. With Atlanta embracing a rebuild and a new era, they don’t need to focus on winning right away, but developing a culture that will allow them to be successful as time goes on.

The Falcons don’t have a grueling schedule, but I’ll side on the under of 7.5 wins as they develop their new identity on both sides of the ball.

PREDICTION: UNDER 7.5 WINS (+105)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 6 WINS (+500)

Donnavan Smoot:

This is going to be another hard year for the Falcons. 2020 was filled with blown leads, Super Bowl flashbacks and Julio Jones injuries. After finishing dead last in the NFC South, it looks like Atlanta will occupy that same space in 2021.

Before I get to why the Falcons will be bad, I want to acknowledge Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts as the bright spots on the offensive side of the ball. 

Defensively, the Falcons need improvement. They were 19th in the league in points per game allowed (25.9) and 28th in the league in opponent yards per game (398.4). Atlanta had a bend-don’t-break mentality, but that style of play is hard to maintain.

The Falcons are also in the NFC South with the reigning Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers and a talented Saints team. Atlanta might be on the same level as the Panthers, but Atlanta would have to be at the bottom for this simple reason. The Falcons cannot keep a lead. 

Last year, Atlanta blew three leads of at least 16 points. They can’t be trusted with a lead and that is why I would have the Falcons at the bottom of the division. The goal for this year should be to get Kyle Pitts and the defense up to middle of the pack. While the Falcons have weapons, I find it hard to believe that this will be the year, in a tough division and conference, to string wins together.

PREDICTION: UNDER 7.5 WINS (+105)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 5 WINS (+700)

Peter Dewey: 

The Falcons and Arthur Smith can claim that they are trying to win all they want this year, but you don’t trade away one of the best players in franchise history if you plan on trying to win a Super Bowl. Plain and simple. 

Atlanta is supposed to hover around .500 according to its win projection on WynnBET, but I don’t see the Falcons getting much better in 2021. Atlanta had very little money to spend this offseason (that’s why it had to trade Julio Jones), and now that he's gone, I don’t see how they take a step forward. 

Atlanta was 4-12 last season, and their biggest offensive upgrade besides adding Kyle Pitts at tight end was signing running back Mike Davis to replace Todd Gurley. Yes, that’s as underwhelming in writing as it is if you say it out loud. 

Pitts should help fill the void left by Jones’ departure, but Atlanta is essentially running back the same roster on both sides of the ball with a new coach. Is Smith really going to be good enough to scheme the Falcons over their 7.5 win projection? I don’t see it. 

To top it off, Atlanta had the fourth-worst defense in the NFL last season, and while it did bring in Fabian Moreau to help at corner, it’s already struck out on a free-agent move after releasing Barkevious Mingo after a serious child sex offense allegation. 

The Falcons are in cap hell, and are relying on an aging Matt Ryan to carry an underwhelming roster. They’ll get some wins from playing a last-place schedule, but I’m still predicting that they go under 7.5 wins in 2021.  

PREDICTION: UNDER 7.5 WINS (+105)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 7 WINS (+400)

Iain MacMillan:

Now that I have the bad taste out of my mouth that was caused from writing good things (credit to me for being unbiased) about the Buccaneers and Saints, it’s finally time for me to write about my beloved Falcons.

Atlanta has obvious holes on their team that needs to be addressed this season, but let’s not pretend like they were a terrible team last year. If they knew how to hold on to a lead late in the 4th quarter, losses against the Cowboys, Bears, Chargers, and Chiefs all could have been wins, which would have had them at 8-8 on the year.

New head coach Arthur Smith will bring a rejuvenated culture to the Falcons organization. Dan Quinn was a likable figure and was popular among his players, but after more blown leads than you can count, it was time for Atlanta to move on.

The Falcons are now re-tooled and are ready to lift themselves up from the basement of the NFL. They have a favorable schedule in 2021 which should help them do just that. They have a last place schedule which is further complemented by facing the entire NFC (L)East. They’re also scheduled to face the AFC East, and their 17th game that was added by the NFL is against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

If the Falcons can sure up their defense, which ranked 19th in scoring last season, a 10-win campaign certainly isn’t out of the question.

PREDICTION: OVER 7.5 WINS (-130)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 10 WINS (+1000)

Will the Atlanta Falcons Make the Playoffs? | YES (+220), NO (-300)

Ben Heisler:

I predicted the Falcons will be a 6-win team in 2021, so unless half of the NFC comes down with COVID and has to forfeit ¼ of their games this season, a 6-11 record in a 17-game season won’t get it done.

I do expect to see improvements especially on the defensive side of the ball as the season progresses, but there are two many question marks on the offensive line, in the running game, and at receiver after Ridley for me to back this team to head to the postseason. I see the Saints being the last team in the postseason for 2021-22, which doesn’t leave much room for Atlanta.

PREDICTION: NO (-300)

Donnavan Smoot:

Hopefully by now you can see that I am not a believer in the Falcons. Even if Atlanta were to prove me wrong and have a decent season, I don’t believe they will make the playoffs.

I am a strong believer in NFC West dominance and think three teams from that division will make the postseason. That leaves one spot for the rest of the conference and there are several teams I would pick over Atlanta.

Sorry, Falcons fans. This won’t be your year.

PREDICTION: NO (-300)

Peter Dewey: 

The Falcons aren’t going to take the NFC South crown this season. That will likely belong to the Buccaneers, so they’re looking at battling for one of the three wild card spots in the NFC. 

Earlier, I took the Saints to grab one of those spots in our season preview, and I really don’t see three NFC South teams making the playoffs, especially with how talented the NFC West is this season. 

Atlanta isn’t going to finish over .500, and there’s now way they’d sneak into the playoffs even if they somehow ended up getting to 8-9 on the season.

It’s a shame the Falcons blew a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl, cause they’re not going to find success like that with this current core again. 

PREDICTION: NO (-300)

Iain MacMillan:

The new 17-game schedule makes predicting the playoffs a bit more difficult. 10 wins will usually be enough for a team to win a wild card spot, but will that still be the case when a team finishes at 10-7 instead of 10-6?

We also only have one year of the expanded 7-team conference playoff to use as reference, so we’re going in more blind than past years when trying to predict who will and who won’t find themselves in the 2021 postseason.

With that being said, I’ll take a shot on the Falcons squeezing into the playoffs at +220 odds. A lot of question marks surround the team, but if Arthur Smith can bring a winning culture into the organization, Atlanta should be able to take advantage of a favorable schedule.

There are going to be some surprise teams in 2021, and I think the Falcons fit that bill.

PREDICTION: Yes (+220)

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Every day since the start of NFL Training Camp, the BetSided team of Ben Heisler, Donnavan Smoot, Peter Dewey and Iain MacMillan are breaking down the win totals, playoff and Super Bowl odds for every team in the NFL.

Check back Friday at 1 p.m. EDT when we preview the betting outlook for the Carolina Panthers and check out our earlier team previews for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints.

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