Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Preview: Prediction, Bracket, Odds, Standings and Schedule
By Joe Summers
After an intense regular season conference schedule saw three teams finish within a game of first place, Davidson came out on top and heads into the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament with the No. 1 seed.
The A-10 Tournament gets underway on Wednesday, March 9th, at the Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C. as No. 12 La Salle takes on No. 13 Saint Joseph's followed by No. 11 Rhode Island against No. 14 Duquesne.
Despite winning the conference in the regular season, Davidson has the second-lowest odds to win the tournament at +290 over at WynnBET Sportsbook. Dayton, who finished one game behind the Wildcats, are the favorite at +260.
ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi currently only has Davidson making the NCAA Tournament, with Dayton in his "First Four Out" and VCU in his "Next Four out" - with every team needing to solidify their spot in postseason play, we'll be in for a grueling, highly competitive series of games.
I'm here to take you through everything you need to know about the Atlantic 10 Conference tournament, starting with the odds over at WynnBET:
Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Odds
- Dayton: +260
- Davidson: +290
- VCU: +320
- Saint Louis: +650
- St. Bonaventure: +750
- Richmond: +1500
- George Mason: +2500
- Fordham: +10000
- Rhode Island: +10000
- La Salle: +10000
- Massachusetts: +20000
- Saint Joseph's: +30000
- George Washington: +50000
- Duquesne: +100000
Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Standings and Bracket
Here's a look at the standings and bracket for the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament:
Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Schedule (Dates, Times, Channel)
The first round of the Atlantic 10 Conference will be broadcast on ESPN+, with the second round and quarterfinals being on USA Network.
CBS Sports Network will broadcast the two Semifinal games and the championship matchup on Sunday, March 13th will be on CBS Sports.
All times in EST (local time).
Wednesday, March 9, 2022 - Atlantic 10 Tournament First Round
- 1:00 PM: No. 12 La Salle vs No. 13 Saint Joseph's - GAME 1
- 3:30 PM: No. 11 Rhode Island vs No. 14 Duquesne - GAME 2
Thursday, March 10, 2022 - Atlantic 10 Tournament Second Round
- 12:00 PM: No. 8 Fordham vs No. 9 George Mason - GAME 3
- 2:30 PM: No. 5 Saint Louis vs Game 1 Winner - GAME 4
- 6:00 PM: No. 7 George Washington vs No. 10 Massachusetts - GAME 5
- 8:30 PM: No. 6 Richmond vs Game 2 Winner - GAME 6
Friday, March 11, 2022 - Atlantic 10 Tournament Quarterfinals
- 12:00 PM: No. 1 Davidson vs Game 3 Winner - GAME 7
- 2:30 PM: No. 4 St. Bonaventure vs Game 4 Winner - GAME 8
- 6:00 PM: No. 2 Dayton vs Game 5 Winner - GAME 9
- 8:30 PM: No. 3 VCU vs Game 6 Winner - GAME 10
Saturday, March 12, 2022 - Atlantic 10 Tournament Semifinals
- 1:00 PM: Game 7 Winner vs Game 8 Winner - GAME 11
- 3:30 PM: Game 9 Winner vs Game 10 Winner - GAME 12
Sunday, March 13, 2022 - Atlantic 10 Tournament Finals
- 1:00 PM: Game 11 Winner vs Game 12 Winner - CHAMPIONSHIP
Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Prediction and Pick
This is as wide open a conference tournament as any and I wouldn't be surprised if any of the top five teams emerged as champion. Here's how KenPom sees it playing out:
Dayton is on an absolute roll. They've won and covered the spread in seven of their last eight and are the most balanced team in the conference, with the 63rd-best adjusted offensive efficiency and 31st-ranked defensive efficiency in the country, per Bart Torvik. The Flyers are the rightful favorite in my opinion, as their offense is surging to match their strong defense. Over their last five games, they're in the 95th percentile in offensive rating thanks to a 97th-percentile ranking in field goal percentage. If they can keep hitting shots, they'll win the tournament.
Davidson won the regular season conference title for a reason and that reason is their offense rules. They're in the 96th percentile in offensive rating on the year thanks to the 13th-highest adjusted offensive efficiency. The Wildcats lost to Dayton in the season finale but they'd already wrapped up the conference title and had won 17 of 19 games prior to that.
VCU is an interesting option, as they easily have the best defense in the Atlantic 10. The Rams are in the 100th percentile in defensive rating over their last five and have the 2nd-highest defensive turnover rate in all of college basketball. Their problem, though, is that they turn the ball over almost as much as they force the opposition to. They're in the 2nd percentile in turnover rate, but if they can protect the ball their defense will carry them to the NCAA Tournament.
Saint Louis and St. Bonaventure can't be overlooked, either. The Billikens have covered the spread in each of their last three and have the talent to cruise through the conference, but they've played poorly overall of late and have fallen from the 89th percentile in net rating on the year to the 36th over their last five.
St. Bonaventure, meanwhile, has won eight of nine games thanks to a defense that rates in the 99th percentile over their last five matchups. They protect the ball as well as anyone in the conference and if they can hit shots to match their newfound defensive prowess, they stand a real chance to advance.
I'm writing off Richmond. The Spiders have covered the spread just once in their past eight games and aren't playing well enough to win four games in four days.
George Mason presents an intriguing sleeper option, as they've covered in seven of their last eight as an underdog and excel when the odds are stacked against them. But they've failed to cover in three straight and are in the 1st percentile in bench scoring on the year. Without strong depth, they won't be able to withstand the grueling schedule and I expect them to flame out even if they pull off an early upset win.
I think Dayton is the class of the conference and with their newfound offensive success, they should survive a tough game against VCU to make the finals. With how much their team is cruising, I'm taking the Flyers to make the NCAA Tournament and win the Atlantic 10 Conference.
Pick: Dayton +260
Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Dark Horse
St. Bonaventure's defense can carry them to victory if they can sustain their recent play. They're in the 96th percentile in steal percentage and 95th in block percentage over their last five, so they can frustrate tired opposing offenses as the tournament carries on. A semifinal matchup against Davidson would be tough, but they've got the shot makers to keep it close against the Wildcats.
At +750, I'm willing to find out if this defense is legit. If it is, they'll face Dayton in the finals and we'll be sitting pretty with our Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament bets.
Pick: St. Bonaventure +750
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.