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Auburn vs. LSU Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 7

Can LSU's defense show up against a lackluster offense?

By Reed Wallach

Sep 30, 2023; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; LSU Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) give direction
Sep 30, 2023; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; LSU Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) give direction / Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
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LSU escaped with another win last week, this time holding off Missouri on the road, but the defense continues to keep this team back from being an SEC contender.

The Tigers defense has been a disaster this season, and needs to pick up if it wants any sort of postseason success. The Bayou Bengals are home after two road conference games to face Auburn, who may be the worst FBS defense it has seen this season. Could this be the time to buy LSU's defense at its bottom?

Here's my bet on this SEC matchup:

Auburn vs. LSU Odds, Spread and Total

LSU vs. Auburn Betting Trends

  • LSU is 3-2 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • LSU is 1-1 as a double digit favorite this season
  • Auburn is 2-3 ATS this season
  • LSU has gone OVER in all six games this season
  • Auburn has gone UNDER in both road games this season

LSU vs. Auburn How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, October 14
  • Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Tiger Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN
  • LSU Record: 3-2
  • Auburn Record: 4-2

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LSU vs. Auburn Key Players to Watch

LSU

Jayden Daniels: Daniels has been performing at a Heisman Trophy level this season, but the defense has limited the team's success to keep him out of the picture for now. He has passed for 1,969 yards with 23 total touchdowns and only two interceptions. It's worth noting that Daniels took a big hit against Missouri last week and has a rib injury, but his status is not in danger of playing.

Auburn

Payton Thorne: It's been a tough go for the Michigan State transfer, who has four touchdowns to five interceptions and is averaging 128 passing yards per game. Thorne splits time with run-first QB Robby Ashford and the passing game is non existent, the team is 119th in EPA/Pass. Can the team get going through the air against a vulnerable LSU defense?

LSU vs. Auburn Prediction and Pick

As I noted in our early week betting preview, I believe now is the time to get in on an LSU under as the market is inflating the teams totals due to its prior results but not the matchup this week.

88, 104, 65, 55, 69.

Those are the totals of LSU against FBS competition this season. The offense has been elite, but the defense has been arguably the biggest disappointment in college football this season.

With that being said, I like the under in this matchup come Saturday night.

Auburn will be the best defense that LSU has seen this season, rating 26th in EPA/Pass despite playing the likes of Georgia and Texas A&M. The Tigers' pass defense is particularly strong, allowing about six yards per pass attempt, which is 26th in the country. The defense does a good job of putting pressure on the quarterback and making it difficult for offenses to turn in scoring drives from in close. Auburn is 24th in the country in red zone touchdown percentage allowed, allowing a TD on just 46% of plays.

Against a stout Auburn defense we may see Daniels, who is entering with a lingering rib injury struggle for the first time all season. However, LSU's defense will also get a breath of fresh air against the terrible Tigers offense.

We could see some improvement from the LSU defense. While the defense has been laughable thus far, the unit has been gashed by some of the best offenses in the country. Florida State, Ole Miss, and Missouri, each have elite passing games this season, all inside the top 15 in EPA/Pass, and Arkansas has a dynamic quarterback in KJ Jefferson.

Auburn doesn't have any of that. The team has scored 20 or less against three Power Five opponents and lacks any explosive offense, 109th in EPA/Play. On the road, I expect the Tigers to try and beat this LSU defense on the ground and play ball control. That is fine and could work, but with a total being lined in the 60s, there needs to be more explosiveness.

LSU has gone over in all five games this season, but I believe we see some regression in the scoring department now that the team is facing a successful defense that struggles to score on its own.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!

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