Auburn vs Mississippi State Prediction and Odds (Tigers Interior Advantage Will Lead Them to Cover)

The No. 5 Auburn Tigers (25-4) have lost two of their last three but hope to rebound when they take on the 17-12 Mississippi State Bulldogs tonight at 9:00 p.m. EST.

Auburn is just 1-5-1 against the spread (ATS) over its last seven while the Bulldogs have won three of four but failed to cover in three straight.

With a half-game lead in the SEC Conference standings, the Tigers know they need wins to stay ahead of Kentucky, Tennessee, and Arkansas. Will they buckle down and pick up an important road victory or does value lie with Mississippi State to play spoiler as they bolster their own NCAA Tournament resume?

Here are the odds via WynnBET:

Auburn vs Mississippi State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Auburn -3.5 (-110)
• Mississippi State +3.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Auburn: -165
• Mississippi State: +135

Total:

• 142.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Auburn vs Mississippi State Prediction and Pick

Yes, Auburn is struggling and Mississippi State has been stellar at home, going 6-2 ATS in its previous eight games at Humphrey Coliseum. But this line is downright disrespectful.

The Bulldogs point of attack falls right into the hands of the Tigers. Mississippi State is built to score inside. The Bulldogs are in the fourth percentile nationally in 3-point attempt rate, which measures how many shots a team takes from the outside versus two-point shots. 70.7% of their shot attempts come from inside the arc, and Auburn is elite at defending that kind of offense.

Thanks to a long, rangy defense led by Walker Kessler and his 4.7 blocks per game (the most in all of college basketball), the Tigers are in the 99th percentile in defending two-point shots and allow opponents to hit only 42.2% of those shots. They've been even stingier over their last five games, allowing opposing offenses to make only 38.3%.

That interior advantage extends to the offensive end for Auburn as well. The Bulldogs have the 239th-best two-point defense as opponents are hitting 51.3% of two-point shots. Auburn has the 31st-ranked offensive rebounding rate and Mississippi State ranks in the 15th percentile in opposing field goal percentage on second-chance points, so even if the Tigers miss, they should give themselves enough extra opportunities to generate easy looks.

If I have a concern with this one, it's that the Bulldogs have the 18th-best free throw rate while Auburn fouls a ton and are outside the top 300 in opposing free throw rate. If the Tigers aren't focused, Mississippi State could live at the line and keep it close.

But I'm trusting Auburn to hold steady and bounce back from a rough stretch of play. The Tigers are still 18-10-1 ATS on the season and 17-8-1 as a favorite. I'll admit, they're 0-4 ATS in their last four as a road favorite and lost their last two outright, but the numbers are telling us the Tigers are a safe play.

Just this month, Mississippi State was a 6-point underdog to both Alabama and LSU. The Bulldogs were on the road, but Auburn is better than both of those teams even factoring in home-court advantage and this line should be higher.

Pick: Auburn -3.5 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.