Avalanche vs. Ducks Prediction and Odds (Can Colorado Keep the Goals Coming?)
The Colorado Avalanche are the Stanley Cup betting favorites and have earned that title in recent weeks. They're 8-1-1 in their last 10 games, and are riding a three-game winning streak into tonight's matchup with the Anaheim Ducks.
The Ducks are trending in the complete opposite direction. After a strong start to their season, they've now gone 2-6-2 in their last 10 games and have lost three-straight. They still remain in the playoff hunt, currently sitting in third place in the unbelievably weak Pacific Division.
Let's take a look at the odds for tonight's Western Conference matchup, courtesy of WynnBET.
Avalanche vs. Ducks Odds and Total
Moneyline:
- Avalanche -250
- Ducks +210
Puck line:
- Avalanche -1.5 (+100)
- Ducks +1.5 (-120)
Total:
- 6.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
Avalanche vs. Ducks Betting Trends
- The OVER is 7-1 in the Avalanche's last eight games.
- Avalanche are 6-0 in their last six games against the Ducks.
- The Avalanche are 13-2 in their last 15 games.
- The UNDER is 11-4 in the Ducks' last 15 games.
- Ducks are 0-6 in their last six games vs. Western Conference Opponents.
Avalanche vs. Ducks Prediction and Pick
Tonight's game is a battle between two conflicting trends. The OVER has hit at a high rate for the Avs, while the UNDER has been doing well in games involving the Ducks. Tonight, I'm going to wager on the UNDER with the total set at a high mark of 6.5.
Yes, there have been a ton of goals in Colorado games this season, but the advanced analytics are predicting a regression in this category. Their scoring 4.2 goals per 60 minutes, but their xGF/60 (expected goals for per 60 minutes) is 3.02. That's a 1.18 difference in goals and expected goals per game, which is an insane difference.
The same is true for their goals against. They're averaging 3.16 goals against per 60 minutes, but their xGA/60 is 2.7. Not as significant of a difference as their goals for category, but a .46 mark is still certainly worth nothing.
At the end of the day, I'm a stats-based handicapper, and they're telling me that this run of OVERs for the Avs this season is going to come to an end sooner or later.