Avalanche vs. Stars Prediction and Pick (Regression Coming for Colorado)

The Colorado Avalanche are set to take on the Dallas Stars in Sunday afternoon NHL action.
The Colorado Avalanche are set to take on the Dallas Stars in Sunday afternoon NHL action. / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The Colorado Avalanche have officially taken over as the top team in the NHL and the first to reach 70 points this season. They haven't lost in regulation since all the way back on December 16th against the Predators. They've gone 16-0-2 in their last 18 games, which is unheard of.

Tonight, they can continue to build on that dominant record when they take on the Dallas Stars, who currently sit in fifth place in the Central Division. Dallas is 7-3 in its last 10 games, and is desperately trying to get back into the top four in the division.

Let's take a look at the odds via WynnBET for this afternoon's matchup.

Avalanche vs. Stars Odds and Total


  • Avalanche -165
  • Stars +135

Puck line:

  • Avalanche -1.5 (+152)
  • Stars +1.5 (-182)


  • 6 (Over -125/Under +105)

Avalanche vs. Stars Betting Trends

  • The UNDER is 7-2 in the Avs' last nine games.
  • Stars are 9-4 in last 13 games vs. Avalanche.
  • The UNDER is 9-2 in the last 11 games the Avalanche played in Dallas.
  • The OVER is 6-1 in the Stars' last seven home games.

Avalanche vs. Stars Prediction and Pick

For a team that's been as dominant as the Avalanche have been over the past two months, they don't exactly jump off the stat sheet. Over their last 25 games, the Avalanche rank seventh in CORSI%, 10th in FENWICK%, 14th in high danger scoring chances, and 25th in high danger scoring chances against. Those analytics don't seem like they'd belong to a team that hasn't lost in regulation since mid-December.

So with that being said, I'm going to trust the numbers and continue to fade the Avalanche, not because I think they're a bad team, but because I think some regression is on its way. Colorado is a very good team, but they can't keep winning at this rate while posting those kinds of statistics.

Give me the Stars to pull off the upset at home today.

Pick: Stars +135

Iain is 28-23-1 (+4.05 units) with his NHL picks in 2021. Check out his detailed record here.