We're just days away from the opening tee shot at the PGA Championship at Oak Hill, which is set to be the second men's major golf tournament in 2023.
If you're like me, you're trying to put the pieces to the puzzle together to try to pick the winner. Well, I have one more piece of the puzzle to give you.
It's a significant trend in betting on the PGA Championship that dates all the way back to 2006. Phil Mickelson ins 2021 has been the only exception to the rule.
First, let's take a look at the odds to win this week's major and then I'll break down why recent form is absolutely key in winning the PGA Championship.
PGA Championship Odds
PGA Championship Trend
Dating back to 2006, the winner of the PGA Championship finished no worse than 28th in their most recent start before the event.
As I mentioned above, Phil Mickelson is the exception to the rule, finishing in 69th place in his last start prior to the PGA Championship. But, even then, Mickelson was the first round leader in that event before falling behind on the weekend.
Eight of those times since 2006, the winner finished in the top 5 in their event prior to the PGA Championship. If we go by that trend alone, we can narrow down our list of golfers to the following:
- Jon Rahm (2nd place in last start)
- Scottie Scheffler (5th)
- Brooks Koepka (5th)
- Xander Schauffele (2nd)
- Jason Day (1st)
- Dustin Johnson (1st)
- Sungjae Im (1st [in Korea])
- Cameron Smith (2nd)
- Tyrrell Hatton (5th)
- Tommy Fleetwood (5th)
- Wyndham Clark (1st)
- Patrick Reed (5th)
- Si-Woo Kim (2nd)
- Harris English (3rd)
- Adam Meronk (1st)
- Nicolai Hojgaard (5th)
- Harold Varner (4th)
- Padraid Harrington (5th)
- Thorbjorn Olesen (3rd)
So, will the winner come from the above list? If history holds up, there's a good chance it happens.
If you want my best bets to win this week, you can read my betting preview here.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.