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Ball State vs. Tennessee Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 1

By Reed Wallach

Dec 30, 2021; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Hendon Hooker (5) attempts a pass
Dec 30, 2021; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Hendon Hooker (5) attempts a pass / Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
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Few teams enter the 2022 season with a bigger jump in expectations than the Tennessee Volunteers.

It's the second year of head coach Josh Heupel and his frenetic offensive pace led by quarterback Hendon Hooker. We know the Vols are going to score, but can they put up enough points to overwhelm their Week 1 opponent, Ball State, at home?

Let's breakdown the odds and find the most valuable bet for Thursday's matchup:

Ball State vs. Tennessee Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Ball State: +32.5 (-115)
  • Tennessee: -32.5 (-105)

Moneyline:

  • Ball State: +4300
  • Tennessee: -7000

Total:

  • 68.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Ball State vs. Tennessee Betting Trends

  • Ball State is 12-10 against the spread (ATS) in non conference games against Mike Neu, but 10-12 straight up (SU)
  • Tennessee went 3-2 ATS and SU in Josh Heupel's first season
  • Tennessee went 5-3 SU at home last season, are 42-29 since 2012

Ball State vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick

This number is massive and I wonder just how much we'll see from the Vols' first team on Thursday night. If they wanted to, they can cover this spread with ease.

Hooker is generating some dark horse Heisman Trophy buzz with the offense he plays in and his dual threat ability, and I expect this team to flirt with 30-40 points in any given matchup. They averaged 2.92 points per drive last season, top 20 in the country.

Ball State is two years removed from a MAC Championship and are replacing long time quarterback Drew Plitt and receiver Justin Hall. There are plenty of holes in this roster that is going to need time to gel before they fight in the competitive MAC. For reference, the only Power 5 team they played last year was at Penn State and they lost 44-13 as 22 point underdogs.

The Cardinals won't be able to stop the Vols offense, but this total is too high. I show a number edge on Tennessee, but with a big rematch at Pittsburgh in Week 2, I'm concerned they shut it down early.

The Vols should win big, but the under is the best bet as I'm not sure this rebuilding Ball State team is getting to double digits.

LEAN: UNDER 68.5

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