Ball State vs. Toledo Prediction and Odds for College Football Week 11 (Side with Rockets to Get Back on Track)

Sep 24, 2022; San Diego, California, USA; Toledo Rockets quarterback Dequan Finn (7) looks to pass
Sep 24, 2022; San Diego, California, USA; Toledo Rockets quarterback Dequan Finn (7) looks to pass / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Toledo is still in control of the MAC West despite playing without dynamic quarterback, Dequan Finn, last game.

The Rockets had a bye last week and now return to the field in hopes of getting Finn back and scoring a win over second place Ball State at home. The visitors scored an upset win over Kent State last week and now look to get in control of a MAC division.

Let's check out the odds and what Finn's availability means for this one:

Ball State vs. Toledo Odds, Spread and Total

Ball State vs. Toledo Betting Trends

  • Toledo is 3-1 against the spread (ATS) at home
  • Ball State has gone UNDER in six of nine games this season
  • Toledo has covered the only FBS game they were favored by double digits this season

Ball State vs. Toledo Prediction and Pick

Toledo lost Finn at the end of the team's loss to Buffalo, but Tucker Gleason led the team to victory last time out on October 29th, tossing three touchdowns in a 27-24 win over Eastern Michigan.

Finn returning would give the team a huge boost, but I believe we see a rested Toledo defense take control against a Ball State team that is reliant on moving methodically, not on chunk plays. The Rockets are top 20 in yards per play allowed and tackles for loss, so if Ball State falls behind the sticks, they are going to struggle to extend drives.

Toledo has showcased a strong ground game this season, averaging nearly five yards per carry and top 35 in explosive run rate. I think the Rockets grind this Ball State offense down and breakthrough whether it's Finn or Gleason. If we get Finn, this line should be closer to the opener of north of two touchdowns. However, the backup showcased enough that I'll still lay double digits.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.