Baylor vs. Air Force Prediction and Odds for Armed Forces Bowl (Weather Driving Over/Under)

Oct 29, 2022; Lubbock, Texas, USA;  Baylor Bears quarterback Blake Shapen (12) hands the ball to
Oct 29, 2022; Lubbock, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears quarterback Blake Shapen (12) hands the ball to / Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Baylor and Air Force meet in the Armed Forces Bowl on Thursday, Dec. 22.

The reigning Big 12 Champions took a step back this season, going 6-6 with a handful of competitive losses in league play. They are matched up with Air Force, the triple option offense that was a handful in Mountain West play. How will they fare against a Power 5 opponent?

Let's first check out the odds:

Baylor vs. Air Force Odds, Spread and Total

Baylor vs. Air Force Betting Trends

  • Baylor's head coach Dave Aranda is 1-0 against the spread (ATS) in bowl games
  • Air Force's Troy Calhoun is 7-4 ATS in bowl games
  • Baylor went OVER in eight of 12 games this season
  • This is the first time Air Force is an underdog this season, they went 6-6 on ATS this season

Baylor vs. Air Force Prediction and Pick

The total in this game has been slammed down due to inclement weather expected in the Texas area for this game.

With high winds, passing will be much harder and the cold weather won't do them any favors either. That's key as Baylor's passing game has been a strength of the unit, 26th in success rate and Air Force's pass defense is shaky at best, 114th defending the pass.

Of course, Air Force runs the ball at the highest rate in the country, and does it well with a top 15 success rate against a middling Baylor defense that is below the national average in both line yards and EPA/Rush on the defensive side of the ball.

This total got slammed down on Monday morning from 48.5 to the current market of 43.5 with winds expected in play and the clock running often. It's worth noting that with a lower total, Baylor is now a smaller favorite, but with the team's reduced ability to pass I can't buy the dip on the Bears.

I do still think both teams can run the ball and find success. Maybe it's a futile effort and the wind is too much for both offenses to overcome, but I'm going to take the over at a reduced number as Air Force should be able to get the push up front and Baylor's skill position group can take advantage of a weak Air Force defense that hasn't faced an above average offense of the Power Five ranks.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.