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Baylor vs. Iowa State Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 4

By Reed Wallach

Iowa State Cyclones quarterback Hunter Dekkers (12) celebrates with team mates after a touchdown
Iowa State Cyclones quarterback Hunter Dekkers (12) celebrates with team mates after a touchdown / Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA
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Two Big 12 foes meet in Ames for conference opening games.

Iowa State was expected to enter a rebuild after losing a ton of senior talent, but it has jumped out to a 3-0 start behind Hunter Dekkers strong play at quarterback. The Cyclones host last year's Big 12 Champions, Baylor, in hopes of jumpstarting a Big 12 run of their own.

The Bears are 2-1 on the season with sophomore quarterback Blake Shapen at the helm, can they win their first conference game of the season?

Here are the odds from FanDuel Sportsbook:

 

Baylor vs. Iowa State Odds, Spread and Total

Baylor vs. Iowa State Betting Trends

  • Iowa State is 24-15 against the spread (ATS) in home Big 12 games under Matt Campbell
  • Baylor is 12-10-1 ATS under Dave Aranda
  • The home team has won the previous four meetings (Iowa State won at Baylor in 2017)

Baylor vs. Iowa State Prediction and Pick

Baylor won last year as seven point underdogs 31-29 despite being outgained by 197 yards and having the ball for 11 less minutes than the Cyclones.

There are plenty of new faces on the roster, but I'm bullish on Iowa State getting some revenge after Baylor spoiled their Big 12 opener in 2021.

Dekkers has looked in control of the offense so far, completing nearly 74% of his passes behind a stout offensive line. While he needs to protect the ball (three interceptions) Iowa State is top five in havoc rate allowed this season, which is paramount against Aranda's defense.

Last season, the Bears were built around the defense, and while it is limiting chunk plays at a high rate, top 25 in explosive pass and rush defense, they aren't generating turnovers just yet, only two on the year and are outside the top 75 in havoc rate allowed.

I'm also not sure what to make of this offense that is transitioning to Blake Shapen at quarterback and needs to replace their top two running backs and three wide receivers. The team was able to thrive against Albany and Texas State, but couldn't generate sustainable drives against BYU in a hostile road environment, posting 3.85 yards per play in that one.

In that game, BYU was able to win through the air, averaging 0.24 EPA/Dropback in that game (71st percentile of games over the past two seasons). I trust Dekkers and the Cyclones to have similar success as well.

At under a field goal, I'm in on Matt Campbell's team to get a home cover as I think this Baylor team still lacks a successful offensive game plan.

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