Baylor vs. Kansas State Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 11

The Baylor Bears will head to Manhattan, Kansas, on Saturday afternoon to play the No. 25-ranked Kansas State Wildcats. Kansas St. is coming off a tough overtime loss to the Texas Longhorns last week that saw the Wildcats overcome a 20-point deficit in the second half.

For Baylor, this season has been one to forget as they’ve lost three out of their last four games, including an overtime loss to Houston last week. If the Bears want to make it into a bowl game, they must win their last three games, which is easier said than done. 

Here are the odds and our best bet for Baylor vs. Kansas State:

Baylor vs. Kansas State Odds, Spread and Total

Kansas State vs. Baylor Betting Trends

• Baylor is 2-6-1 against the spread (ATS) this season
• Baylor is 4-1 straight up in its last five games against Kansas State
• Kansas State is 5-0 ATS at home this season
• The UNDER is 7-3 in Kansas State’s last 10 games against Baylor

Baylor vs. Kansas State How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Nov. 11
• Game Time: 3:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Bill Snyder Family Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): Big 12/ESPN+
• Baylor Record: 3-6
• Kansas State Record: 6-3

Baylor vs. Kansas State Key Players to Watch

Baylor

Blake Shapen: The junior quarterback has missed a few weeks this season with a sprained MCL, but overall been solid for the Bears. In last week’s overtime loss to Houston, Shapen completed 78.4% of his passes for 263 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. 

Shapen has an interception in back-to-back games after not throwing an interception in the first four games he played this season. For the Bears to pull off the upset this weekend, they must do a better job of protecting Shapen, who was sacked four times against Houston. The Wildcats defense has recorded 19 sacks this season (sixth in the Big 12).

Kansas State

Will Howard: The senior quarterback from Downingtown, PA, balled out last week against the Longhorns. Howard completed 61.9% of his passes for 327 yards (season-high), four TDs, and an interception. Howard threw the ball 42 times against Texas, which he hasn’t done since Oct. 23 against UCF. 

Kansas State will hope that the senior signal caller can build off his performance last week and dominate the Bears’ pass defense, which is allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game this season (207.6).

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Baylor vs. Kansas State Prediction and Pick

The Wildcats gave themselves a chance last week to win, but it was a little bit too late against the Longhorns. However, the good news for Kansas State is that they will be home this week, where they are 5-0 ATS and 5-0 straight up this season.

In their three Big 12 home games, the Wildcats are scoring 42 points per game and defeating their opponents by an average of 30.6 points. Meanwhile, Baylor has road wins over UFC and Cincinnati but only won by four total points. Nevertheless, Kansas State is the better team on both sides of the ball, and I expect their 18th-ranked scoring defense to do their job.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change