Baylor vs. Ole Miss Updated Prediction and Odds: Expect a Shootout at Sugar Bowl

Baylor is set to take on Ole Miss in the upcoming Sugar Bowl.
Baylor is set to take on Ole Miss in the upcoming Sugar Bowl. / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The Baylor Bears are fresh off its upset victory over Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship Game, and now they'll be playing against Ole Miss in the upcoming Sugar Bowl.

Ole Miss failed to challenge Alabama in the SEC West, but they still finished with a 10-2 record with its only losses coming against the Crimson Tide and Auburn. Baylor finished the season at 11-2, with its losses coming to TCU and Oklahoma State in the regular season.

Let's take a look at the odds via WynnBET for the 2022 Sugar Bowl.

Sugar Bowl Odds, Spread, and Total


  • Baylor +1.5 (-110)
  • Ole Miss -1.5 (-110)


  • Baylor +105
  • Ole Miss -125


  • 55 (Over -110/Under -110)

Baylor vs. Ole Miss Betting Trends

  • Baylor is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games.
  • The UNDER is 5-1 in Baylor's last six games.
  • Ole Miss is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The UNDER is 7-0 in the last seven games for Ole Miss.

Sugar Bowl Prediction and Pick

We've seen no significant move in the spread or total since this game was announced. I think the spread is set at the right number in this game so I’m looking at the total instead.

Both teams love to run the football. They're 22nd and 38th in rushing play percentage. Baylor has the advantage in stopping the run, ranking 16th in opponent yards per carry compared to Ole Miss at 82nd.

Baylor has trouble stopping the pass, so I think Matt Corral, who has announced he will play, will have a big game. 67.58% of the yards gained against the Baylor defense comes through the air which is the 12th highest rate in the country.

I think Ole Miss will be able to move the ball vs. Baylor through the air, and I think Baylor will be successful running the ball against Ole Miss. Expect a lot of points in this SEC vs. Big 12 battle.

Pick: OVER 55