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Baylor vs. TCU Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Monday, Feb. 26 (Trust Horned Frogs)

By Reed Wallach

Feb 24, 2024; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs forward Emanuel Miller (2) celebrates with
Feb 24, 2024; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs forward Emanuel Miller (2) celebrates with / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
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Baylor and TCU meet in Fort Worth on Monday night, a rematch of the team's thrilling rematch from last month that ended with the Horned Frogs winning in triple overtime on the road.

The Horned Frogs will look to make it a season sweep against Baylor, who was on the wrong side of a home loss to Houston over the weekend despite rallying to force overtime. Will the Bears bounce back and score a signature road win, or will the team's struggles away from home continue?

Here's our best bet for Monday's Big 12 showdown:

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Baylor vs. TCU Odds, Spread and Total

TCU vs. Baylor Betting Trends

  • TCU is 17-10 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Baylor is 16-10-1 ATS this season
  • TCU is 10-6 ATS at home this season
  • Baylor is 1-6 straight up (SU) this season as an underdog

Baylor vs. TCU How to Watch

  • Date: Monday, February 26th
  • Game Time: 9:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Schollmaier Arena
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN
  • Baylor Record: 19-8
  • TCU Record: 19-8

TCU vs. Baylor Key Players to Watch

TCU

Emmanuel Miller: The TCU forward has been on a tear and off one of his best games of the year, pouring in 18 points with six rebounds and six assists with three steals against Cincinnati. In the first game against Baylor, he had 21 points as a downhill threat off the bounce, can he continue to put pressure on the rim against the Bears who have been vulnerable on the inside?

Baylor

RayJ Dennis: Dennis had 21 points against Houston over the weekend, but also eight turnovers in the team's overtime loss. The Toledo transfer has been loose with the ball all season, he had five turnovers in the first game against TCU but will look to continue his efficient scoring this season to offset some of those concerns. Dennis finished the triple overtime thriller with 24 points and 10 assists.

TCU vs. Baylor Prediction and Pick

Baylor has had some serious struggles on the road all year, ranking 349th in Haslametrics away rating this season. Factor in that TCU ranks 52nd in its home rating, and I believe the home favorite can take care of business on Monday night.

The Horned Frogs offense thrives in transition and at getting to the rim. TCU is 14th in points per possession in transition according to ShotQuality on the highest frequency in the nation (17%). Baylor has struggled in that regard all season, 304th in points allowed in transition this season and is middle of the road at defending the rim, even with the emergence of freshman big man Yves Misi.

Baylor has shot makers all over, the team is shooting 40% from beyond the arc on the year, but that number has a lot of noise around it. On the road, the team is shooting 31% from distance (221st in the country). Further, ShotQuality believes that Baylor is due to a five percent drop in three-point percentage.

While TCU shocked Baylor to take the first game, I believe there are enough matchup edges for the Horned Frogs to win and cover on Monday night.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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