Be Careful Betting Home Favorites in NHL Playoff Game 5s
The NHL playoffs are in full swing right now and tonight we have a fantastic slate of first round games. There are four Game 5s tonight, with every series tied at 2-2. This is only the second time that a night like this has happened. On a historic night in the NHL, let’s look at trends to help us figure out what to do tonight.
Tuesday marks the second date in NHL history featuring four Game 5s from best-of-7 series that are all tied 2-2.
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 10, 2022
The last time this happened was April 11, 1991. That day also featured a game between the Bruins and then-Hartford Whalers (now Carolina Hurricanes). pic.twitter.com/mWlBiAZWMg
One thing to stay away from is blindly betting the favorites. This hasn’t been a successful strategy for the last decade, literally. If you had bet on every favorite in the first round, you would be down nearly 57 units. The NHL Playoffs is one of the more unpredictable playoffs in all of sports, and the phrase “anything is possible” is more apt here than anywhere else.
In terms of Game 5 trends, home teams and outright favorites cash in at about the same rate. Since 2010, home teams are 71-59 in Game 5s (54.6%) and favorites are 67-55 (55%). Even favorites at -200 and shorter are only 71-59 in that span.
Tonight, the favorites are the Carolina Hurricanes, Toronto Maple Leafs, Minnesota Wild and the Edmonton Oilers. Edmonton is the only team that is -200 or over.
With all of these series in a crucial swing game, don’t be afraid to take a chance on an underdog, as you’ll most likely be better off doing that than following the favorites.
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