Bears-Dolphins Over/Under Moves Up Following Roquan Smith Trade

The Chicago Bears are embracing the tank, and oddsmakers are starting to take notice with the fire sale going down on Chicago's lakefront.

Fresh off trading their all-time single season sack leader in Robert Quinn ahead of Week 7 to the Philadelphia Eagles, Chicago moved arguably their best defensive player Monday afternoon. With the NFL Trade Deadline just a day away, the Bears shipped outside linebacker Roquan Smith to the Baltimore Ravens Monday afternoon for a second and fifth round draft pick.

The Bears come off their worst defensive performance since 2014 when they got destroyed by the Green Bay Packers during the short-lived Marc Trestman era; allowing 55 points at Lambeau Field to Aaron Rodgers and company.

With two of their best defensive players no longer on the roster, oddsmakers began to shift the lines for Chicago's Week 9 matchup against the Miami Dolphins at Soldier Field. Let's take a look and see just how much they've moved since their original opening number.

Dolphins-Bears Odds Move Following Roquan Smith Trade

The original lookahead number for this game was Bears +3 before both Miami and Chicago played their Week 8 matchups vs. the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys respectively. By the time Sunday evening rolled around, the line had moved to the Bears as a consensus 4.5-point favorite. Right now, several books are split between +4.5 and +5 for Chicago.

As for the total, the over has gained traction throughout the course of the week, opening at 42 and now anywhere between 44.5 and 45 at several available sportsbooks. Once the Smith deal became official, the consensus line now sits at 45 at almost every book in the country.

The biggest line movement actually did not impact the full game spread or total. Instead, it was the first half total that made the biggest jump following the pre-deadline trade.

Most books offered the total after the first 30 minutes at 20.5 to 21.5 before the trade announcement. Now it's moved up anywhere from 1-2 points since then.

I personally grabbed the OVER 20.5 at PointsBet while the odds were still available, citing Chicago and Miami's defenses being amongst the worst in the NFL in the first half this season. Chicago ranks dead last in points allowed following their blowout loss to Dallas, while Miami comes in at 30th in the NFL.

However, both teams have made multiple adjustments in the second halves of games this year. Despite the Cowboys scoring 21 points in the second half en route to 49 in the game, the Bears' defense only allowed two scores in the final 30 minutes, as one of the touchdowns came on a fumble recovery from Micah Parsons. Chicago ranks 8th in second-half points per game defensively in 2022.

Miami has also made excellent second half fixes to its defense this year, coming in with the sixth-ranked defense in the league in PPG allowed.

With Miami's offense completely locked in and Tyreek Hill being unguardable through the first eight weeks of the season, the Dolphins may very well get to this number on their own in Chicago. However, I expect Chicago's offense to continue to make plays as the top rushing team in the NFL, and Justin Fields' continued development starting to showcase more on film.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.